每日更新 - 沙特阿拉伯债券首发

今天,期待已久的沙特阿拉伯政府债券首次发行,吸引了众多急需收益的投资者。他们最终看到了世界第二十大经济体和最大石油出口国的价值。昨日,如卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯国家电力公司(SECO)等相关地方债券的5年期、10年期和30年期暂定指导价止跌回升;SECO上升了4个点。有人会疑惑为什么市场现在才看到这个富裕地区能带来的可观收益。如SECO等内部准主权债券比长期美国国债评级低四个等级,相差295个基点,而名义上只比主权债券第一个评级 – 这是长久以来的该地区债券价值证明。

沙特明确保证利息,收益率为典型Baa1信用评级的债券收益率。该债券的信用评级为AA-/A1,国外资产净额为GDP的170%,已探明全球石油储量的18%(按照目前每日1200万桶的产量计算为70年)。该国有大量的多样化主权财富基金,24%的GDP资本支出迅速将一些非石油的本国产业(如矿藏开采)搬上国际舞台。此外,其巨大的6160亿美元外汇储备毫无疑问足以钉住美元,支持其在2020年实现预算平衡的目标。

该债券的最低发行量为100亿美元,市场造势期望达到200亿美元(预计超额认购3-4倍),且未来几年仍有机会发展,这对尝试从其他渠道获得同等收益,迟入手该债券的大买家来说是利好消息。此外,我们需要通过曲解的方式如期对称谓进行重新定义(比方说,如果一个国家根据购买力评价计算的人均GDP为5.4万美元,则该国为新兴市场)。我们预计在像沙特这样有巨大风险调整后收益的高额定地区,会有更多金额庞大的限制资金在市场上活跃。在这种情况下,如果债券的回报率能达到公允价值估值,10年期债券可能会有约9%的额外回报率,而30年期债券的额外回报率可能高达21%。这当然不太可能在近期全部实现,但其价值和回报机会在投资过程中是很典型的。

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