每日更新 - 小心你想要的... The Daily Update - Be careful what you wish for...

英国投票离开欧盟后,英镑兑美元损失扩大,跌至自全球金融危机以来的最低水平。尽管如零售销售等最近的经济数据令人惊讶的呈上涨趋势,英镑正面临“英国退欧困境” 的担忧。英镑兑美元自年初以来跌落16.5%,在攥写本文时,兑欧元贬值超过18%。事实上,英镑是今年迄今为止兑美元表现最差的货币之一;甚至比阿根廷比索更糟,仅优于安哥拉宽扎,尼日利亚奈拉和委内瑞拉银币!前英国央行行长默文·金昨天声称,英镑下跌是一个“值得欢迎的变化”, 并补充说,对英国退欧的关注‘过度了’。 他继续评论道,在全民投票运动期间,有人指出英国退欧将推高通货膨胀,而房价和英镑会下降; 这基本上是英国央行过去三年来一直在努力实现的目标...... 现在有机会实现了。

在今天的会议期间,金边债券市场基准10年期交易超过1%; 其原因在于人们对财政支出和英镑下跌的担忧增加。货币疲软,通货膨胀率上升和政府支出增加(创纪录的低借贷水平)的组合可能给金边债券市场带来更大的压力。市场对通胀激增的预期推动5年期英镑通胀掉期率从7月底的低点上升约24%至2013年水平。

由于我们所有的基金都以美元计价,英镑货币走势对我们影响较小。在我们的投资组合中,我们持有几个英镑债券; 例如国有俄罗斯铁路2031到期7.487%利率债券涨幅超过29.5%,苏格兰寡妇基金2023年到期5.5%利率债券自年初以来总回报率增长了8%。这两个债券继续提供有吸引力的风险调整回报率,分别为18.2%和12.7%,收益率分别为5.8%和4.2%。虽然以英镑计价,这些债券是完全对冲的,所以我们受英镑影响为零。

同时,俗话说好事多磨。已经讨论了25年以上的决定,虽然自2000年以来一直被提议,其面临辩论的时间已超过数百万的工作时间,而今天看起来似乎达到紧要关头了。我们说的是扩大东南部希思罗机场或盖特威克机场容量的决定。希思罗机场由于第三条跑道而备受推崇。昨天,苏格兰政府表示将支持该计划; 相信扩展英国和欧洲最繁忙的机场,除了经济和战略利益外,将在苏格兰创造高达16,000个就业机会。苏格兰国民党昨天与伦敦希思罗机场签署了一份谅解备忘录,其中包括调查国有格拉斯哥普雷斯蒂克机场作为建设额外跑道的物流中心的可能性。该决定预计将在短期内在首相特里萨·梅主持的航空会议小组委员会作出,该委员会赞成希思罗机场扩建从而超过盖特威克机场。

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