每日更新 - 中央银行政策会议 The Daily Update - Central Bank policy meetings

在今天和下周之间,我们将听取一些中央银行的政策决定。正如我们的预期,今天上午瑞典央行保持利率为-0.5%。但是它强调了其疲软的通货膨胀忧虑,认为情况好转需要继续支持,保持目前的回购利率为-0.5%;这比9月假定的时间长6个月。它还说,“其他中央银行的举措” 将影响其”延长购买的决定”,表明其愿意在12月扩大资产购买计划。远离通货膨胀之外,已经有一些经济数据迹象令人惊讶地转好; 虽然2016年和2017年的增长预测分别下降至3.2%和2.2%,9月份的失业率下降,10月份的消费者信心因为近期强劲的经济增长而超过市场预期。

挪威银行也保持利率,存款利率保持在0.5%,是区域同行中最高的水平。该国的增长在今年第二季度停滞不前,但失业率仍保持在4.9%的多年高点。截至9月,该国的通货膨胀率为3.9%。中央银行预计关键利率将在可预见的未来保持在这一水平,因此挪威克朗是今年表现最好的主要货币之一。

虽然地理位置接近,挪威和瑞典的政策立场有着天壤之别,尤其是在财政政策方面;这是由于二者不同结构的经济。挪威一直在利用其巨额的8,800亿美元石油基金来填补年度预算的空缺,从而支持该国的增长。另一方面,瑞典中央银行在推动财政宽松方面颇为无力,因此更多地依赖于货币政策,即负利率刺激增长。货币也发挥一部分作用。瑞典和挪威都是非常开放的经济体(出口加上进口占国内生产总值90%以上),所以其货币力量对其经济有较大的影响。挪威银行显然专注于针对其货币刺激通货膨胀和增长,金融危机后和最近的石油过剩期间均为如此,然而瑞典央行行动缓慢。

在其他地方,下周我们将看到日本央行,英国央行和美联储举行“超级星期三”政策会议。今天,英国国内生产总值数据季增长率为0.5%,年增长率为2.3%。尽管2016年第三季度增长的唯一驱动因素是服务业,但这已超过预期。随着增长符合危机后水平,市场共识是,英国央行将保持货币政策不变,至少直到2017年第一季度。全民投票后情况及最近英镑崩溃毫无疑问将在会议有所讨论。正如卡尼在星期二在上议院所说的那样,官员们对汇率并非“漠不关心”; 因为自公布数据以来,该货币已下跌11%。

在大西洋彼岸,即使是鸽派也开始表达他们的‘信念’,即美联储应该继续正常化利率;虽然这具有数据依赖性和渐进性。我们最好的猜测是,美联储将在下周继续袖手旁观,并期待在12月加息,这是第一次危机后一年的加息。我们怀疑中央银行不会在选举前加息。虽然希拉里似乎在领导民意调查,但是在所有的世界都对英国退欧结果感到惊讶之后,中央银行加息还为时过早。期货市场定价有72.5%的可能是12月份利率从9月底的59%上升,而下周上升可能性只有17%。

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