每日更新 - 德国,法国,美元,英镑和人民币 The Daily Update - Germany, France, US dollar, sterling and renminbi

今天上午10月份德国信心指数的发布似乎证实了该国仍然是欧洲增长的动力所在。该指数对制造业,贸易和建筑业中7000家公司进行调查,从9月的109.5上升至10月的110.5,超过市场预期。报告显示,制造业在三年内以最快的速度扩张,以应对来自美国和亚洲的更多外国需求。目前的条件指数和预期指数也令人惊讶的上行。

德国失业率与法国相比,约为自1990年统一以来的最低值6%。法国不仅落后于经济,且第二季度的就业增长仅为0.2%,这一数据低于西班牙,意大利和英国。由于法国大陆失业率为9.6%,25岁以下的失业率为24%,法国似乎也在为欧元兑日元贬值而奋斗,而欧元兑日元自年底以来涨幅为-13%。另一方面,美元升至自今年第一季度以来未见的水平;而德国情形完全相反。

事实上,从8月份开始的美元涨势已经扩大到自去年2月以来未见的水平,现在按美元指数衡量为98.64。美元指数指世界主要货币对美元的指数,现在上升5.5%至今年6月水平。英镑今年表现最差,我们看到多种主要货币兑美元总收益率,包括利率差异,处于-16.6%,其次是瑞典克朗-5.5%,墨西哥比索-3.78%。令人惊讶的是中国人民币只是略低,即使最近下跌,仍处于-0.45%,这是因为中国货币利率差异在较弱时期起到帮助作用。

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