每日更新 - 在菲律宾寻找价值 The Daily Update - Looking for value in the Philippine

那些在美国希望寻找遇事不冲突总统的人只需要看看菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特蒂。其上任后不到100天,已帮助处死大约3,600名疑似毒贩和吸毒者。他对司法程序的嘲弄 -指责和伤害无辜者(甚至是长期死亡者)以及违法者 -是他外交手段的补充。他称奥巴马总统和教皇‘妓女的儿子’ (如果奥巴马干涉国内政策,而教皇干预马尼拉交通的话)。其他有趣的咒骂包括称新加坡为,“屯驻地伪装成的一个国家”。

但是在这么艰难的时刻,尖刻的谈话和行动使得杜特蒂总统支持率高于75%(但最近被杀和俘虏者没有进行投票)。他的厚颜无耻在于,他现在正试图在全国公共场所强加吸烟禁令,而在菲律宾,超过1700万,或28%的成年人吸烟(该人数超过投票赞成其担任总统者)。

但是,除了可吸入和可消化毒性和那些陷入风波的毒性之外,该政府对国家的经济增长和投资机会有多大的毒性?其国内生产总值增长仍然高于6.4%(根据最新季度估计为7%),而世界银行预测2017年和2018年的增长仍会高于6.2%。该国自2014年以来一直保留穆迪和标准普尔的Baa2 / BBB等级。此外,根据斯特拉顿街外国资产分析,菲律宾是一个3 *国家,这意味着它在国营部门,私人和家庭部门仍然只有少量净外债。

自2013年成为投资级以来,菲律宾一直处于我们可投资的领域,但从未进入我们的投资组合。自2013年以来,菲律宾一直未能根据我们的模式和研究提供相对价值。从垃圾级到等级2,菲律宾10年期政府债券仍然只对美国国债提供81个基点的利差(总赎回收益率为2.6%)。当建立一个收益率超过3.5%的A3级投资组合成为可能时,这种债券将降低平均评级和预期收益。我们的投资理念一直在于寻找风险调整回报的价值。无论杜特蒂是否推行无限制政策,菲律宾的政府和公司债券将继续无法与我们的模型和其他投资机会相比。

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