每日更新 - 贸易和英国退欧 The Daily Update - Trade and Brexit

加拿大和欧洲联盟之间的“全面经济贸易协定”(CETA)被其支持者称为“将为国际贸易制定新标准的渐进协议”。根据目前协议,所有形式的关税,除了特定农业产品,将被取消。

事实上,在本周早些时候,西班牙外交部长何塞•曼努埃尔•加西亚-马加略(Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo)甚至主张将其作为英国退欧的榜样,“如果英国人坚持选择权限制欧洲工人自由流动到英国,唯一的解决方案是加拿大做法。”但这是在瓦隆议会未能批准这项协议之前。

瓦隆是比利时的重要地区之一,拥有自己的议会,但只有获得国家政府批准才能通过法律。因此,瓦隆州拒绝此贸易协定意味着比利时国家政府无法批准该协定:通过这项协议必须得到所有28个欧盟成员国的批准。不可避免地,协定将会进行修订,这意味着协定可能仍然会通过,但困难很大,尽管加拿大总理特鲁多计划于10月27日访问布鲁塞尔,签署正式条约。

显然,试图谈判自由贸易协定是非常复杂的; 全面经济贸易协定已经酝酿7年了。瓦隆地区部长兼总裁保罗·马格纳特(Paul Magnette)指出,目前形式的条约对“社会和环境标准和可持续发展构成真正的威胁”, 加上他们对协议允许跨国公司合法挑战政府政策感到不安。瓦隆人还担心投资者 - 国家争端解决机构的裁决法院绕过正常的司法程序,并希望该条约也以加拿大人在保护方面所采取的同样方式保护欧盟免受大规模农业进口。总之,看起来有相当多的问题要处理。

这可能是打破特雷莎·梅政府的“英国退欧”战略的“三重打击”中的第一个:它面临这样一个事实,即英国退欧与从英国离开欧洲的所有其他并发症将折磨不堪,仅在短期时间框架内令人渴望,而如果事情采取更激烈的路线结果将更糟糕。第二,可能高等法院听证会质疑英国政府是否可以在没有议会授权的情况下开始英国退欧并触发“里斯本条约”第50条,而该会议需要3个法官小组在下一个星期内作出裁决。有趣的是,原告案件指称需要议会批准触发第50条,因为这不会夺走英国公民的宪法权利。第三,上议院特别委员会的一份报告建议,在整个过程中应该更多地与议会协商。

虽然越来越多的人在全民投票中投票支持英国退欧,但他们并不一定投票赞成脱欧支持者提出的这种极端形式,因为这个过程将绕过许多议会的参与,而使用皇家特权。有趣的是,2010年10月12日星期日《独立报》的雷斯研究所投票显示,49%的人优先考虑与欧盟就移民问题进行良好的贸易协议,39%仍然优先考虑移民。 44%(约2200亿英镑)的英国商品出口到欧盟,所以保持与欧盟建设性的贸易关系是至关重要的。在2008年之前的二十年里,世界贸易年均增长率为6.5%,但我们现在处于低增长时期,2012-2015年只增长了3.25%,而2015年进一步减弱到仅2.5%。英国将能够轻松,快速地创建新的贸易关系,从而抵消强硬的英国退欧的任何负面影响的假设是天真的。“强硬的英国退欧”会困难重重。

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