每日更新 - 美国经济增长与新常态 The Daily Update - US growth and the New Normal

旧金山联邦储备银行高级研究员约翰·费纳尔德(John Fernald)最近发表的一篇题为《美国经济增长的新常态是什么?》的文章表明,美国经济增长率(按实值计算)可能处于1.5-1.75%之间。作者的首选点估计是1.6%,他认为“该估计与劳动力质量在未来十年返回其1973 - 95年以来平均速度的净生产率增长一致,这比自2004年以来的速度稍快。”

该报告指出,生产率增长在其较好的时期(例如1948 - 1973年和1995 - 2004年)平均为2.5-2.75%,而在较慢的时期(例如1973 - 1995年),生产率增长率低至1.25%。但在2010 - 2015年期间,平均每年只有〜0.25%。当前经济增长放缓主要归因于人口和教育程度:“随着婴儿潮一代退休,就业增长减少。劳动力的教育程度已经稳定,劳动力质量对生产率增长的贡献降低。

国内生产总值增长是工作小时数增长和每小时国内生产总值增长的总和。费纳尔德指出,劳动力增长显示出随时间的显着变化:“在20世纪70年代和80年代,随着婴儿潮一代达到工作年龄和女性劳动力参与率的提高,劳动力增长比人口快得多。这些劳动力增长的驱动因素在1990年代初期基本上消退了。”在1973-95年期间,国内生产总值增长了近3%,但如果工作时间只增长0.5%(目前国会预算办公室对未来十年的预测),并且生产力以其历史速度增长,那么国内生产总值增长将接近1.75%。

虽然人口变化的减缓似乎很清楚,但生产率效应并不那么明显:预测下一次技术飞跃是更困难的。更悲观者会认为技术的飞跃,例如蒸汽机,电动发电机,内燃机和微处理器这些过去生产力提高的关键推动力,不太容易继续推动生产力。但在更加看涨的规模结束时,埃森哲发布了一项关于12个发达经济体(包括美国)的研究,认为人工智能(AI)可以使每年经济增长率翻番:他们认为通过自动化许多任务和释放工人从事更多技术性任务,“人工智能有提高劳动生产率40%的潜力。”但我们注意到,这也将淘汰很多工作。作为报告作者之一的保罗·多尔蒂(Paul Daugherty)认为这是一个“短期迁移”, 但是佛瑞斯特研究公司研究指出,在5年内,人工智能可以减少6%(净数字)的美国就业岗位。鉴于该巨额数字,我们不太相信在未来5年左右实现大规模生产力提高。

美联储自9月份更新的国内生产总值预测似乎与较低的正常值相符:2016年国内生产总值增长的预期中值为1.8%,2017年和2018年小幅升至2%,在2019年回落至1.8%。重要的是,国内生产总值增长长期正常率的预期中值从6月的2%降至1.8%。

对我们来说,旧金山联储局文件只是强调我们的观点,即我们处于低增长的时代,中性利率将保持低位,从而支撑利率曲线的长期预期。因此,对收益的追求似乎会继续下去,对我们来说,来自债权国以美元计价的债务提供的正收益似乎会带来引人注目的机会。

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