每日更新 - 世界经济增长与中央银行 - The Daily Update - World growth Central banks

虽然作者煞费苦心攥写美联储与《经济会不会,将来会不会》之间的关系,我们一样长期以来认为,全球经济处于最好时期,但在这个相当不同的经济周期确实处于非常脆弱的阶段。

彭博社昨日的一份报告显示了多少央行通过提高资产负债表来支持今年的经济增长。报告显示,10家最大的央行现在持有资产总额为21.4万亿美元,比2015年底上升10%。报告说2014年和2015年,这些央行的合并持股增长3%以下。

正如您所料,日本央行和欧洲央行是今年的大买家,增加了2.1万亿美元,而中国人民银行和美联储将其持有量减少了约2%。有趣的是;瑞士国家银行在过去十年中是最积极的,增加其资产负债表8倍,而俄罗斯是最不积极的,增长仅为68%。事实上,瑞士和俄罗斯的银行今年增加了15%的股份。

自2006年10月中旬以来,在过去十年中,十大中央银行资产负债表增加了265%,而MSCI所有国家世界指数上涨了19%,而债券市场据彭博巴克莱全球综合指数增长50%。

几乎四分之三的中央银行资产都由四大银行持有;中国人民银行持有5万亿美元,美联储4.5万亿美元,日本央行4.4亿美元,欧洲央行3.9万亿美元,而世界其他中央银行共同持有6.7亿美元。因此,前十大央行持有的21.4万亿美元相当于截至2015年底世界经济规模的29%,是2008年全球经融危机以来的两倍,是世界上每一股票的合并市值的三分之一。

我们的问题是,如果没有这么大量的支持,且中央银行放松其参与,全球经济将何去何从;全球经济衰退吗?的确,这些央行购买也推高了股票和债券价格,但通货膨胀和低增长不会支持债券,特别是更长期的债券,那么股票将何去何从。哎。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.