每日更新 - 英镑迎来另一个可怕的月份 The Daily Update - Another horrific month for Sterling

万圣节前夜来了,该节日传统上是怀念逝去亲人的夜晚,但现在主要是孩子,还有貌似是名人打扮,聚会和吓唬邻居的好机会。他们带上卫生纸,敲诈糖果(这对花店而言是一个坏消息,但对服装零售商,糖果店,牙医而言是好商机,另外饮酒过度走在回家路上的人需要卫生纸)。

对于我们大多数来说,今天也标志着比万圣节更令人担忧的事情 - 英国英镑另一个可怕的月份结束了。 10月份,英镑进一步下跌6.2%,成为表现最差的货币;英镑已经在6月下降8.6%,进一步在7月,8月和9月下降。事实上,除非有人计划前往安哥拉,尼日利亚,委内瑞拉,莫桑比克或苏里南(而不是使用美元),相较于2015年底,英国人在世界任何地方都会更糟糕。此外,对比一些新兴市场货币,他们在巴西,俄罗斯,日本或南非的消费能力现在削弱40%到50%之间。货币下跌主要是在英国退欧投票后,看起来可能会持续。但是,英国退欧演变应该如何接近全球投资者关注的顶峰呢?

许多熟悉的英国退欧恐惧仍然令人担忧,但有些方面可能比现实更危言耸听。首先显而易见的,人们必须记住,英国债务是以我们自己的主权货币计价的。不幸的是,政府的紧缩政策几乎没有利用最低的借款成本,现在随着金边债券收益率增加更表示希望刺激财政。但即使英国的公共债务和赤字仍然是不可持续的,其对于货币政策的主权控制,以及与欧元区慢镜头的撞车动作距离的增加,更多受到市场关注。此外,因为许多相互交织的行业将面临不断上升的外国进口成本和较高的国际借款成本,来自疲软货币的出口增长还远远不能确定。再次,当然,普通消费者开始感到价格上涨的压力,且有时上涨不成比例; 根据《金融时报》分析,现在你可以从加拿大购买苹果笔记本电脑,支付跨大西洋航空费,仍然有余额。

积极性主要来自许多英国企业的国际活动和投资。事实上,大约75%的富时指数100强公司主要有海外收益。此外,英国银行和金融公司多年来新兴市场投资的回报微弱,虽然其至少可以从最近相对贬值的报告货币获得提振。相应地,城市对持续金融服务权利的谈判力量似乎仍然被低估; 其在独立基础上继续作为一个国际金融中心的潜力是欧盟必须更加谨慎对待的,并且其会有助于一些扩展等价模型的条款更加成熟。但现在,持续的法律模糊性使得大多数预测或经济预测不足。

围绕英国经济和未来的不确定性可能继续带来一些适合我们投资模式的价值机会。虽然公开重债,但是估值调整的净国际投资状况却无法接近许多挣扎的外围欧元区国家面临的关键水平,并允许有明确的投资和监测。然而,我们大多仍然热衷于对净债权人进行投资,净债权人相对履行其义务的能力能继续提供有吸引力的收益。

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