每日更新 - 资产市场再次找到自信... The Daily Update - Asset markets finding their feet again...

尽管未来特朗普政府的政策立场仍然未知;最近资产市场的波动似乎有所减少,因为低迷市场似乎开始找到自信。似乎“已知”的一件事是美国和俄罗斯之间的未来关系。昨天在特朗普和普京互通电话后,人们期望两国努力使关系正常化,使贸易协定正式化,共同努力打击国际恐怖主义和极端主义。我们猜测,普京还会希望特朗普放宽对俄罗斯的西方制裁, 1月将审查其进展; 最近我们听说意大利,匈牙利,希腊和塞浦路斯对制裁的有效性提出质疑,并正在推动制裁放宽。虽然该地区的债券在选举后公布后出售,俄罗斯铁路2031到期7.487%利率债券和俄罗斯天然气工业公司2034到期利率8.625%的控股已恢复到美国收盘和今天交易时段结束水平; 在本文攥写时上升2-3点。这两大债券依然具有吸引力,收益率超过6.3%,有充分的2-3.5信用保护,预期回报分别为19.4%和13.5%。

货币市场在一周内也遭遇冲击,因为美元在特朗普胜利宣布后继续反弹;美元指数刚刚低于去年11月的高位,昨天徘徊在100以上,但今天已经回退。自上周三以来,没有主要货币兑美元升值,英镑仍然是相对最强的货币,其次是离岸和在岸的中国人民币。在这一货币波动时期,中国外汇交易中心篮子被证明是稳住人民币的巨大锚点。事实上,尽管人民币兑美元下跌到一个新的低点,但实际上人民币兑换一篮子货币升值。与此同时,巴西雷亚尔在同一时期兑美元下跌了6%。

巴西经历了艰难一周,其基准10年期收益率接近5.5%,增长1%,其5年期定期存款已经下降23.5%,至325。且不说目前该国由所有三个主要评级机构评级为次级投资等级,我们从未持有该国的债务,无论是主权债务,准债权还是公司债务。巴西石油公司是该国的综合能源公司,曾经考虑过巴西的宝石,但由于与美国的贸易问题,其债券出现了巨大的抛售。2026到期的8.75%利率的债券自上周选举以来扩大了115个基点,收益率为8.12%,比美国国库券高出587个基点,信用等级为三。我们更愿意投资墨西哥国家石油公司Pemex,以2026年债券作比较,其收益率超过7%,高出411个基点,信用保护等级为5。该债券的公允价值为〜157,这表明该债券达到公允价值仍需要约22点资本增值。

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