每日更新 - 美联储土耳其三明治 The Daily Update - Fed Turkey sandwich

 期货市场现在认定美联储100%紧缩,明天我们将公布11月美联储会议纪要,预计其将反映中央银行成员对在12月13日至14日会议上加息的最近意见。下周在维也纳举行会议之前,由于伊朗和伊拉克的积极评价使得欧佩克在生产方面达成某种协议的可能性变得更加可能,金属和石油的股市再次上涨。

然而,过得不开心的一个地方是土耳其(考虑到这个星期四是美国感恩节,根据美国国家火鸡协会,美国人将消耗大约4600万只火鸡)。自美国总统选举以来,土耳其里拉兑美元已下跌了10%,这是因为外国投资者本季度迄今已撤回超过20亿美元。根据国际货币基金组织的数据,其进一步下跌10%,这在许多观察家看来是很可能的,其将使企业杠杆率从目前的165%提高到200%,因为所有贷款的40%为非里拉计价结构。

土耳其银行拥有大量的公司贷款,如Isbank 73%和Halkbank 77%的公司贷款,而由于土耳其国内生产总值受到强势美元的巨大压力,银行备受关注。土耳其非金融企业债务在过去六年中增长了三倍以上,8月份达到了4,020亿美元,7月份的外汇成本上升到2,010亿美元,相当于土耳其总体国内生产总值的三分之一,而该数据在2010年为12% 。彭博社估计,土耳其所有银团贷款中约530亿美元以美元计值,自2014年年底以来,美元兑土耳其里拉增长超过25%。

根据土耳其担保银行基于2016年第3季度的讲话,银行的一半外债在一年内到期,美联储可能紧缩,里拉可能疲软,银行可能面临严重的再融资风险。不止这一家银行处于这样的境地。如果评级机构对土耳其主权债券前景暗淡,由于土耳其降级为垃圾将进一步施压银行,这些银行的问题也可能复杂化。

正如我们以前在爱尔兰和西班牙所看到的一样,银行问题在压力时期影响政府的资产负债表。土耳其的美国期货协会分数为-71%,因此是一个两星级国家,从而不属于我们的投资意向范围。预计未来几年土耳其财务状况不会改善多少,我们不打算持有土耳其的债务,也不会考虑在土耳其增加任何债务。

然而,我们对季节性的火鸡三明治很感兴趣,自然是带馅的三明治。

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