每日更新 - 联邦公开市场委员会 The Daily Update - FOMC

今天十月非农就业人数增加了161,000个,低于预期的173,000个。前一个月增加156,000个职位的数据修改为+191,000。失业率从9月份的5%稍微下降至4.9%,尽管劳动力也下降到62.8%。平均小时收益高于预期,同比增长2.8%,高于9月的2.6%。

这跟美国第三季度国内生产总值(GDP)发布情况一致,该季度的季度年度化指数为2.9%,但基本数据较弱。库存堆积是主要原因所在,从上季度的-1.2%增加到第三季度的0.6%。净出口也是强劲的推动者,助长了0.8%的份额,反映了阿根廷令人失望的收成之后,大豆出口大幅增长。最终国内需求按季度按年率计算为1.4%。商业投资疲弱,低于预期增长的1.2%。

我们还将注意到,9月的耐用品订单也没有预示特别强劲的第4季度。更奇怪的是,全球经济领袖卡特彼勒的董事长兼首席执行官奥伯赫尔曼(Doug Oberhelman)指出,“世界大部分地区的经济疲软依然存在,因此,我们大多数的终端市场仍然面临挑战。”更具体地说,该公司注意到“2016年下半年北美地区的建筑设备销售预计将低于2016年上半年的预期。”卡特彼勒今年第三次下调了2016年的利润预测,预计2017年收入与2016年相似,不会有回升迹象。

美联储自9月份更新的国内生产总值预测似乎与增长正常率相符:2016年国内生产总值增长的中位数预测为1.8%,在2017年和2018年稍微上升至2%,在2019年回落至1.8%。重要的是,估计长期国内生产总值增长率正常率从6月的2%降至1.8%。通货膨胀压力仍然是良性的,因为其低于美联储的目标:第三季度就业成本指数保持良性,同比增长2.3%,而美联储通胀指标9月核心个人消费支出价格指数同比增长1.7%。

正如纽约联储主席威廉·达德利最近在接受《华尔街日报》采访时指出:“当经济增长略高于趋势,劳动力市场紧缩速度缓慢,通货膨胀低于2%的目标时,不需要紧急采取货币紧缩政策。尽管每月工资增长17.5万,失业率今年持平,但也证明紧缩货币政策不是很紧迫。 ... .. 中立的联邦基金利率似乎今天非常低,这意味着我们今天的名义联邦基金利率和中性利率之间的差距不是那么大。

根据今天固定的就业数据,我们预计美联储将于12月保持超前曲线并提高利率; 期货市场可能在12月加息的机率为76%。也就是说,市场倾向于希拉里·克林顿的选举胜利。但关键是,任何利率上升都可能是非常缓慢的; 许多下调中性利率至较低水平的原因仍然是我们倾向于定位的曲线长端的仍然根深蒂固的固定利率预期。我们预计收益率曲线将从这里变平。

全球市场高度不确定性使债权人的高质量债券,特别是那些提供正收益率的债券,成为最有吸引力的债券之一。

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