每日更新 - 联邦公开市场委员会仍在寻找“一些进一步的证据” The Daily Update - FOMC still looking for 'some further evidence'

正如预料,在美国总统选举仅仅6天之前,在没有定期举行新闻发布会的情况下,联邦公开市场委员会拖延提高利率至少至12月13日至14日的下次会议。这意味着,自从去年12月美联储上次加息以来,这将需要一整年,当时2016年市场利率上涨4次。现在加息只有78%的预期,虽然之前美联储发布“联邦基金加息趋势继续加强”之前加息已有70%预期。

声明语言中最显着的变化是在进行数据依赖性加息批准之前,向需要“进一步证据”添加“一些”一词。我们预计,不倾向于动荡的克林顿将赢得选举,并且涉及数额超过10万的两份临时工资报告可能足以批准“这些进一步的证据”。 这一后者似乎很可能,因为经济学家本周五报告预测在今年迄今为止平均工资增长17.8万之后,将新增17.5万个职位。但,随着克林顿取胜的预测根据《五三八》报道从两周前的88%下降到现在只有67%,前者变得越来越不确定。根据鲍尔博彩公司,投注领域的共识现在倾向于特朗普,最近超过90%的人打赌特朗普取胜。

11月份的声明中的其他细微变化显示,波士顿联邦首席执行官埃里克·罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren)与美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen),以及埃丝特·L.乔治(堪萨斯州)和洛雷塔J.梅斯特(费城),在上个月呼吁“将联邦基金利率上调至百分之0.5至0.75”的目标范围。市场对于美联储是否有信心令通胀有望实现其2%的目标仍然不清楚。虽然它‘从今年初以来有所增加,但仍然低于委员会的2%长期目标... [并且] 大多数基于调查的长期通货膨胀预期采取的措施几乎没有改变’。 正如英国《金融时报》所说, “即使美联储在12月提高利率,但与以前的复苏相比,它仍将预示紧缩。”

同时在英国,这里呈现'超级星期四';在中午12点,英国央行发布了自英国退欧后最全面的报告,所以仅此一次不是虚张之事。此外,高等法院裁定,首相梅在没有议会进一步投票的情况下,不能触发《里斯本条约》第50条。约翰·托马斯法官说,“如果根据第50条发出通知,它将不可避免地具有改变国内法的效力”。 该事件将向最高法院提出上诉(所有11名法官都可能在12月审理此案),甚至向欧洲法院提出上诉(如果不是徒劳的话,这似乎也令人尴尬)。这被称为“议会民主的胜利”, 而此前,其被许多人看作是投资经理吉娜·米勒和一个称为“人民挑战”的小组的蔑视挑战。在胜利之后,米勒女士谈到其将如何使英国退欧程序‘冷静些’, 并反映英国的行政和司法权力协同工作“受到世界各地尊敬”。

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