每日更新 - 法国选举 The Daily Update - French election

随着英国退欧和唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统,2016年是政治变革甚至革命的一年。民粹主义政治似乎是新的时代精神,因为选民已经对不断加剧的全球化和更自由的政策议程上的不平等表示不满,而倾向于对移民和潜在贸易等领域采取更保守主义和保护主义的做法。这种趋势也蔓延到欧洲大陆,意大利宪法改革公民投票即将在12月4日举行,但可能最终成为抗议现任政府和“经济不景气”的抗议投票。明年法国总统选举正在进行的初选也播下了改变现状的种子。

鉴于全球事件,人们期望马琳勒庞至少可能进入法国总统选举的第二轮,但共和党初选也正引起政治冲击。弗朗索瓦·菲永是右翼共和党总统候选人大选第一轮出人意料的获胜者,获得44%的投票,取代只获得了20.6%选票的前法国总统萨科齐。曾经明显领先的阿兰·朱佩只获得了28.6%的选票。菲永现在将在11月27日的决定性投票中与朱佩竞争,并且萨科齐已经表示支持菲永。然而,投票不要求是党员身份,但只需支付€2并注册,因此可能发生反对萨尔科齐的战术投票,但不清楚如何或是否将再次投票。

本轮获胜者最有可能在明年法国总统选举的第二轮决胜选举中面对极右派候选人马琳勒庞:经济学家估计马琳勒庞有40%的机会赢得总统选举,鉴于其党派在2015年12月的区域选举中获得了27%的选票,这并不奇怪。左派党候选人看起来好像不会在第二轮投票中获得足够选票。弗朗索瓦·奥朗德的支持率达到历史最低点,他可能会在共和党候选人当选后决定是否再次参加社会主义初选。但无论如何,社会主义投票获选人,可能主要在独立候选人马克隆和有可能获得一些选票的左派候选人梅朗松中产生。

弗朗索瓦·菲永被标记为驱动改革议程的经济自由主义者(倾向于撒切尔);他更喜欢把自己描述为一个实用主义者。他的一个关键主张是法国需要改变:“如果我们继续执行不改变法国人生活的政策,那么我们将成为极右派。我可以回应法国需要更多权威的问题。”他的政策包括延长工作周(从35小时到39小时),将退休年龄提高到65岁,以及更好的移民控制。他还发誓要消除50万个公共部门工作岗位,削减1000亿欧元(1060亿美元)开支,并提出500亿欧元的减税(虽然增加了增值税),以及减少赤字。菲永准备与唐纳德·特朗普合作,据说希望与俄罗斯建立更密切的关系。在其他方面,如包容同性恋,他非常保守,是一个虔诚的天主教人士。

萨科齐担任总统时担任总理的菲永可能在实践中努力践行他谈到的所有变革:他的一些建议必然面临工会的反对。相比之下,朱佩是雅克希拉克在位时的总理(1995 - 1997年),被认为更中立,并在移民方面不像菲永那么极端。他还希望将退休年龄提高到65岁,提高工作时间至超过35小时,减税(虽然增加增值税),但他只针对200-300,000公共部门的裁员。两个候选人都是亲欧洲。但是朱佩在2004年曾判14个月的缓期执行,并且在1980年代被禁止任职一年,因此可能在决胜选举中面临更多的背景审查。

看起来很清楚的是,法国人对现状不满意并充满沮丧。自2015年1月以来,有283起与恐怖主义有关的死亡,失业率仍然在10%左右,看来是需要候选人做出变革了。

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