每日更新 - 不平衡 The Daily Update - Imbalances

本月早些时候,美国财政部向国会发布了关于美国主要贸易伙伴外汇政策的半年度报告,以作为对其主要贸易伙伴汇率和外向政策审查的一部分。德国,中国,日本,韩国,台湾和瑞士都在审查名单上,因为其具有以下3个特征中的至少2个:与美国的双边贸易实质性顺差,实质性经常账户或显示持续单边外汇干预。即便如此,目前,上述国家没有一个具备所有3种特征或被认为货币操纵者。

德国的经常账户盈余相当于国内生产总值的9.4%(16年上半年),与美国贸易出现了显著双边盈余。正如欧盟委员会本身所指出的那样,“尽管人口老龄化国家如德国的经常账户盈余在预料之中,以及近期油价和汇率发展对贸易平衡产生了有利的影响,但是目前的盈余值远高于基本经济因素的预测值。”

德国的情况由于欧元加剧恶化:在货币联盟中债权国和债务国的结合可能是有问题的。在全球金融危机后的欧元区,高举债经营的赤字成员国,特别是希腊,西班牙和葡萄牙被迫采取紧缩路线,现在经常账户盈余。德国作为一个强大的债权国,已经受困于相对(德国马克)较弱的欧元汇率,并且默认推行重商主义模式。国际货币基金组织2016年外部部门评估指出德国实际有效汇率被低估了10-20%,并且按照标准贸易弹性的经常账户回归模型,它被低估了10-15%。对于欧洲:“总而言之,工作人员认为2015年欧元区平均实际汇率被低估0-10%。从德国的10-20%低估到西班牙的5-10%高估,许多成员国的实际有效汇率差距很大。

欧盟委员会在危机后设立了宏观经济不平衡程序(MIP),‘以确定和解决阻碍成员国经济,欧盟经济顺利运行,并可能危及经济和货币联盟正常运行的不平衡因素。’MIP使用一系列指标,包括‘在阈值为+ 6%和-4%的情况下,经常账户余额3年向后移动平均值占国内生产总值的百分比’。最新审查指出,欧元区经常账户盈余‘高于基本经济因素预测值’, 盈余主要由德国和荷兰推动;欧元区经常账户在2015年达到国内生产总值的3.7%。因此,辩论的一个方面是将德国的过剩盈余提高到更可持续的水平,以避免整个欧元区的经常账户盈余达到不可持续的水平。尝试这样做的明显方法包括通过鼓励私人投资,基础设施投资和旨在提高工资和国内消费的政策来促进国内增长。

调整确实发生,并且也许由于低增长环境,已成为G-7和G-20会议和国际货币基金组织审查报告讨论的重要议题。事实上,跨太平洋伙伴关系纳入了解决不公平货币做法的规定。最终,贸易关系,经济或货币联盟必须给所有人带来好处。例如,中国的经常账户盈余在2007年达到相当于国内生产总值10%的过度且不可持续水平,但现在在2011 - 2015年已经调整回到1.9-2.7%的合理水平。对欧元区而言,在五轮MIP的推动下取得了一些进展,但正如2015年五国总统的报告指出,财政联盟最终还需要深化,并引入欧元区资金和共同宏观经济稳定基金,以便重新平衡和再分配更有效

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