每日更新 - 在特朗普政府领导下,美国经济是否肯定增长?The Daily Update - Is US growth a certainty under a Trump administration..?

随着世界继续从美国总统选举的意外结果中走出来昨天美国结束选举到今天的会议,在撰写本文时,资产市场从低迷的低谷大幅反弹,后遗症似乎有所缓解。虽然10年期美国国库券的收益率自选举公布以来略有上升,但仍低于今年年初约2.1%的水平。

特朗普强调的财政政策包括扩大基础设施支出。虽然不可能一夜之间变化,变化将缓慢进行,直到2017年下半年和2018年,经济影响很小,潜在的基础设施增长主要由工业金属推动,其中铜占首位;3个月期货本月高达11.5%。毫无疑问,这将进一步推动南方铜业公司2035到期利率7.5%的债券,该控股公司在我们的全球投资组合中,而该债券已经比一月低点上升约30点。穆迪Baa1评级债券继续提供超过20%的特别风险调整预期回报,收益率非常吸引人,为5.12%,而信用等级为4。

许多人认为特朗普的政策是促进增长,但是,我们不确定在经济接近充分就业的阶段部署巨额财政刺激是否是一个好主意。相反,我们预计降低国家的巨额预算赤字可能更有利于经济。他还要求审查贸易和移民政策;这被视为棘手的问题,这些都是过去几十年美国增长的主要驱动力。我们想知道攻击两个最重要的增长引擎是否可能会破坏美国潜在增长能力。

中国是特朗普当选后的焦点,同样地,中美关系将被密切关注,因为特朗普寻求面对世界第二大经济体,以试图重塑贸易协定。中国经济最近转向以更可持续的消费和服务为主导的增长模式,加上中国在十年全球影响力增加实际上可能使特朗普难以发挥他的影响力举个例说,特朗普想要废除奥巴马的跨太平洋伙伴关系协议自由贸易协议,该协议似乎旨在孤立中国,并促进美国与亚洲其他国家的贸易关系。此外,面对目前的不确定性,特朗普新任总统相对缺乏经验,加上他潜在的不利的强烈支持美国的看法(没有考虑到世界其他地方,特别是他的邻居墨西哥),不知道他的政策是否会疏远其他国家推动他们走向中国。一些美国最大的公司,例如苹果在中国生产他们的大多数产品和零件,所以中美谈判将受到密切关注。

目前存在这么多未知数,很明显,市场发现很难在这个时刻做出决定,因,我们预计资产类别将继续摇摆不定。因此,我们认为,在信用息差组成部分之外拥有合适的AAA组合是目前最好的投资方式。

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