每日更新 - 莫迪的阴影 The Daily Update - Modi's shadow

为了清除印度的黑钱和线路税,三周前,总理纳伦德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)宣布500和1000卢比钞票“不再是法定货币...只是没有价值的纸”; 尽管这两种主要票据占流通卢比约86%。在电视公告中,莫迪令人震惊地说,他会给民众 –那些在约98%的所有交易(以数量计)中使用现金者-'50天时间在任何银行或邮局存款500卢比和1000卢比。据消息人士称,约2,200亿美元的禁止高额票据中,迄今约有1000亿美元已得到宣布。

本周,莫迪表示,以前“隐藏资金”的持有人可以“自愿”披露他们现在禁止的高值纸币,在支付费用和罚款后,保留高达50%的现金价值; 否则如果被税务官员抓住,会有损失85%价值的风险。然而,人们担心流通中存在大量假钞,并且系统中出现了一些严重的洗钱行为,包括开设流氓银行账户和在不太富裕的社区分配财富;然后换回新的钞票。印度铁路公司的票务销售额从平均每天2000张增加到27,000张,因为洗黑钱者使用旧票券购买一等票,然后取消票,并以较小的票据退款; 然而,这些票将通过支票或电子方式退还。财政部说,“政府不应允许人们找到非法的方式将黑钱转变为黑钱,而应给予他们一个机会,要他们缴纳沉重的税收,并允许他们坦白交代。”

莫迪的非货币化推动印度成为一个“无现金社会”在我们看来将是一个巨大的挑战,事实上,可能需要几代人改变这一心态。大部分中低收入工人不得不依靠社区和家庭的慷慨补助,以及公司认为员工最终以 “准许”票据支付他们的信任。他们迄今一直非常耐心地相信,这将只持续到2016年12月30日,因为政府将很快发布新票据。然而,有一个潜在含义是,尽管该计划是挤出隐性资金所必不可少的,欺诈做法继续演变,人们日益担心大量未申报资金永远不会过滤通过该系统。这并不是说,将经济推向更具数字化和更负责任的制度的目的在长期来看并不是非常有利,但有人担心该计划的部署方式实际上可能阻碍增长或甚至使阴影进一步变暗。

虽然印度在我们可投资的领域,但它不是我们通常期待的国家。三个主要评级机构对其评级为Baa3,高于“垃圾”一级,其政府和准主权债券发行无法提供足够的风险调整回报或信用等级保护; 事实上我们看到的大多数发行债券实际上交易昂贵。

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