每日更新 - 经合组织 The Daily Update - OECD

经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)在唐纳德·特朗普意想不到的胜利当选以来的第一次国际报告中说,尽管特朗普提出的开支和减税的确切好处不明确,但他的提案预期会促进经济增长经合组织表示,可能的增长将使美国2017年的增长率从1.9预期提高到2.3%,到2018年将从2.2预期提高到3%。至于全球经济增长,他们预期20173.2%提高到3.3%,2018年从3.3%提高到3.6%。预测基于美国政府2017年和2018年的支出增加至国内生产总值0.25,此外削减企业所得税,同时减少所得税。两项减少将占到美国2018国内生产总值的大约1.25%。

经合组织秘书长安赫尔·古里亚在发布报告后发表的一份声明中说:现在世界有望从这个低增长陷阱中退出。补充道尽管我们仍然看到危机遗留的明显迹象,我们应该可以看到更好的转机到来 他还认为其他政府应该美国为榜样,提供更多的财政刺激,并坚信这将进一步促进全球增长。

然而,古里亚先生还对保护主义的危险发出警告,认为对贸易和关税壁垒的影响加上贸易协议的解除可以抵消更高支出和降低税收带来的预期经济增长。经合组织首席经济学家凯瑟琳·曼(Catherine Mann)认为,保护主义和不可避免的贸易报复将大大抵消财政举措对国内和全球增长的影响,导致价格上涨,生活水平受影响,并使国家陷入恶化的财政状况。据经合组织,外国需求其提供咨询意见的35个成员国中提供了25%以上的工作岗位。

除了提高美国的增长预测,经合组织对英国政府也有一些喜忧参半的新闻。近期9月份,其将英国2017年经济增长率从1%上调至1.2%,但是现在预计英国退欧协议的拖累会对英国经济造成破坏,预计2018年经济增速将放缓至1低于英国政府预算责任办公室自己的预测,因为财政大臣在上周的秋天声明中预期2017年增长1.4%,2018年增长1.7%。

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