每日更新 - 伦齐退欧?- The Daily Update - Renzexit?

10年期意大利政府债券(BTP)的收益率为2.01%,而西班牙10年期债券为1.54%,这反映了投资者对即将于12月4日举行的意大利宪法改革公民投票的关注。鉴于最近对“英国退欧和唐纳德·特朗普当选美国总统的反政府情绪,市场的紧张是可以理解的。意见调查是不可靠的,虽然大量的选民仍然未决,但这些暗示“反对”票将在意大利占上风。

此次全民投票主要关于实施宪法改革,是马泰奥·伦齐总理政府的一项重要举措。改革旨在简化政府的立法程序,以便下议院(卡梅拉)成为主要的立法机构,裁减后的参议院权力将更有限,扮演更多的咨询角色。改革的支持者认为,两院制系统使得目前难以通过任何法律和改革,而取消参议院的否决权和信任投票,将使政府更加稳定。虽然全民投票只是关于这些改革,但也有一项新的选举法,意大利选举法,生效,其将多数奖励给予得到40%选票的党; 但是意大利宪法法院仍然必须批准/拒绝/修正该法案。反对者声称改革与新的选举法相结合,可能导致在没有足够的制衡力的情况下将太多的权力集中在行政部门。

全民投票的风险也在于,其成为对现有政府的抗议投票,并使选民经历更艰难的时刻。经济增长令人失望,因为意大利经济预计直到20世纪20年代中期之前不会恢复到全球金融危机之前的产出水平。第三季度经济确实增长,但只有0.3%,而且意大利经济增长面临着许多阻力:人口老龄化,高债务水平,生产率低下,技术创新水平低,青年失业率高,身陷不良贷款的薄弱银行体系。

伦齐多次提出放松财政政策的要求,但迄今为止没有受到注意。意大利的预算提交显示,结构性赤字(不包括一次性项目和经济周期调整)从2016年的1.6%可能增加到2017年的2.2%和2018年的2.4%:欧共体准则要求各国每年将结构性赤字削减0.5%直至财政平衡。公共债务预测也高达国内生产总值的133.1%,这违背了减债规则。欧盟对此的反应是警告预算“有不遵守规则的风险”。

大部分人口仍然未决,所以投票仍然有可能赞成伦齐,但是似乎没有哪一方投票更占上风。马泰奥·伦齐本周表示:“如果公民投反对票,希望维持不起作用的破旧制度,我就不会试图和其他政党组成看守政府。”在这种情况下,意大利总统马特雷拉将选择另一位临时政府首脑,直到选举举行。自从第二次世界大战以来,意大利有63届政府,对政治不稳定和看守政府并不陌生,但市场讨厌不确定性。反政府五星运动在意大利获得了势头,这反映民粹主义政治在世界各地的崛起。他们反对欧元,但任何关于离开欧元的猜测似乎都不成熟; 他们必须在选举中获得足够的选票,需要超过三分之二的多数票,或多数票,并赢得全民投票。

意大利是欧元区第三大经济体,是欧洲项目成功的核心,所以“反对票”应该增加欧洲重新评估其“存在理由”的紧迫性。对我们来说,目前的欧元结构将所有成员国都纳入一个针对严格收敛标准的汇率,并触发预算调整水平(预算赤字占3%,债务占国内生产总值的60%),使得财政紧缩和结构改革成为低迷时期主要调整杠杆。财政政策是一个重要的经济稳定因素,在目前的结构下利用不足,因此,目前的结构助长了不平衡和不平等,令债权人和债务人相抗衡,而不是通过促进增长,就业和稳定,使欧洲更加紧密。欧洲经济和财政事务专员皮埃尔·莫斯科维奇(Pierre Moscovici)将特朗普选举描述成一记“政治警钟”, 欧洲必须对此作出回应:我们同意。

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