每日更新 - 俄罗斯 The Daily Update - Russia

最新提交的俄罗斯(Russian)预算规划期从2017-2019,跨度为三年,继续以财政稳定为目标。在俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)私有化不出意外的情况下,2016年的赤字预期占国民生产总值(GDP)的3.7%;否则将会是4.5%。接下来几年赤字占国民生产总值(GDP)比例预期将逐年缩小,分别为2017年3.2%,2018年2.2%和2019年的1.2%。以上为保守预期,因为他们基于每桶40美元的石油价格,这个价格低于现行石油交易价格。也可以假定直到预测期末,制裁依然存在,但是随着现在唐纳德·川普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统,邦交关系改善和制裁减轻将成为可能。

削减开支是达到预算赤字目标的必要手段,但好像要考虑到随之而来的2018年总统大选。2017年税收预期为13.4万亿卢布(占国民生产总值(GDP)的15.4%);2019年税收预期为14.8万亿卢布(占国民生产总值(GDP)的15%),届时同期国民生产总值(GDP)预期从86.8万亿卢布增长到98.7万亿卢布。支出有望从2017年的16.2万亿卢布(占国民生产总值(GDP)的18.7%)减少到2019年的16万亿卢布(占国民生产总值(GDP)的16.2%)。军费开支也是削减目标的一部分;预测显示到2019年军费开支占国民生产总值(GDP)比例从3.3%下降到2.8%。

为了填补预算赤字,俄罗斯宣布有意继续每年适度发行70亿美元的欧元债券。考虑到政府债务水平较低,增加国内外债务发行是其明确范围,当然还可以动用储备基金和从私有化进程中筹措资金。在2017年储备基金将被动用1.151万亿卢布,但储备基金将很快被耗光。国有福利基金将在2017年提供6596亿卢布,到2018年增加到11.4亿卢布,然后宽松到1368亿卢布。通过高税率增加收入看上去似乎并不那么顺利:俄罗斯(Russia)税率低,企业所得税率为20%、个人税率为13%,但考虑到经济萎靡和2018年总统大选,这一手段还未被利用。俄罗斯(Russia)目前正致力于其私有化进程。政府在巴什(Bashneft)石油天然气公司50.08%的股权被俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)收购,其净值可达52亿美元(3297亿卢布)。政府还想要减持俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)19.5%的股权(将持股比例降到50.1%),按最低价格计算为112亿美元。根据经济部长阿列克谢·乌柳卡耶夫(Alexei Ulyukayev)所说,价格反映市场价值,117亿美元股权在10月11日缩水5%。政府意图于2016年12月5日将其全部售清,然后将于年底将收入转移到政府金库。有意思的是,政府还包括国有企业预算50%的股息分配率,这高于现行标准。

惠誉国际(Fitch)将俄罗斯(Russia)的等级评为BBB-并注明“虽然财政缓冲疲弱,但相对同级国家仍保持强势,这是对投资级别评定的关键支持。惠誉国际(Fitch)预期将于2017年耗尽储备基金,接下来就是对国有福利基金的耗蚀。举债筹资将会升级,但基础较低。截止2018年底,一般政府债务净额预期占国民生产总值(GDP)的9.4%,相较于33.8%的‘BBB’预期中值。”俄罗斯经济似乎熬过了最困难时候,现在预测其国民生产总值(GDP)增长将逐渐向好:惠誉国际(Fitch)预测2016年为-0.6%,2017年为1.3%,2018年为2%。

尽管有乌克兰(Ukrainian)灾难和经济制裁,俄罗斯欧元债券(Russian Eurobonds)在过去几年里依然有很好表现。斯特拉顿街(Stratton Street)使用NFA分析筛选强大债权人(也就是那些纯国外资产或者纯国外负债低于GDP50%的债权人)进行投资,而不是只迷信于拥有最多债务的发行体这一指数,却不将强大的信誉作为更重要的权重。这一分析帮助我们处于有利之地,可以很清楚向我们表明,俄罗斯(Russia)的资产负债表显示11.5%的GDP比例(2011)使自己处于很强大的NFA位置,强大到足以平安通过衰退期,债券定价是错误的。过去24个月以来,这些估值异常带来的一流投资回报已经结束,我们沉下心来寻找更多被低估的投资机会。但我们注意到制裁的解除会是评级升级的前提。

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