每日更新 - 价值发现继续进行... The Daily Update - The search for value continues...

本周早些时候,《火炬报》报道说,科威特希望到2020年取消对水,电和燃料的公共补贴。据估计,这些补贴以及财政支持约为30亿美元,约占当前财政预算预测支出5%。9月,政府取消了部分补贴,一些燃料价格上涨了83%;普通气体仍然处于每升0.28美元的低价!

海湾国家财政和外部盈亏平衡油价最低,已经能够比某些地区同类国家更好地抵御低油价,比如阿曼和巴林。然而,与卡塔尔等海湾合作委员会对口国相比,科威特经济远离碳氢化合物的多样化进展缓慢,因此在政府收入和出口方面,该地区依然是依赖石油的经济体之一。7星级的科威特是我们净外国资产(NFA)领域排名最靠前的国家,领先于香港和卡塔尔。

过去,我们持有国家准主权发行人发行的债务,但是目前我们没有收获足够的价值。上周我们看到Equate Petroleum进行了新交易,这是一家位于科威特的石油化工生产商。该公司在12.5亿美元的交易中发行了两次债券; 5年期以互换利率中价+ 195个基点发行,而10年期以MS + 270个基点发行,或者美国国债高出约255个基点。这笔交易以〜2.3x超额认购。仅有穆迪将其评级为Baa2,尽管其准主权性质和对科威特经济的战略重要性,我们并没有将该持股添加到我们的投资组合中,因为我们根据专有RVM计算,相对于我们投资组合内的其他持股,该债券没有提供有吸引力的风险调整后的预期回报,也没有足够的信用等级。目前该债券的预期回报率为4.7%,信用等级仅有1.4。另一方面,新沙特政府为期10年的A3级债券提供超过7.2%的预期回报,保护等级几乎为4。

我们对净国外资产的预测可以帮助我们识别可能由于经常账户失衡而升级(或降级)的国家,我们的RVM使我们能够在我们的可投资领域中识别特殊的风险调整值和信用等级缓冲。因此,按加权平均计算,我们的单一A级投资组合拥有超过3级信用保护,并提供超过3.5%的收益率。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.