每日更新 - 特朗普 美联储 日本央行 优斯特 The Daily Update - Trump Fed BoJ UST

由于本周的债券市场在特朗普胜利带来的收益上升之后平静下来,焦点将转向美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦今天晚上的国会证词。市场将热切地等待主席未来一年左右特朗普取得胜利对货币政策的影响的法。期货市场1213日至14日会议已经定价基金利率上涨约94%,所以预计短期内很少有新的信息,但重要的是耶伦2017利率进一步上升可能趋势提供的信息。

所有在上周发言的美联储官员,也就是17个地区银行总裁和美联储行长中的9个,都表示他们不确定特朗普政策对前景的影响,因为它还没有知道什么政策将被颁布或维持。

插入一段小插曲,牛津字典真理后,定义为关于或指出客观事实在形成舆论方面影响力小于对情感和个人信仰的影响的情况们说,在英国全民投票和美国总统选举之后,这个词的使用频率有了巨大的增加。这使我们想起马克吐温名言 世界上有三种谎言:谎言,该死的谎言统计数据”。

重回正轨,虽然特朗普的政策可能通过减税和财政支出来刺激增长,但也可能通过限制性贸易和减少移民阻碍增长,并且该当选总统要到120才就职,我们预期美联储主席除了确认美联储主要目标之外不会提供更多信息。

可能有助于美联储未来利率的一个因素是日本央行一夜之间的行动,日本央行提出购买无限数量的债务,将利率保持在目标水平,即隔夜利率为-10个基点,十年期收益率为0.00个基点。这阻止了日本债券五天内转移到更高利率,平息了澳大利亚到德国市场,并对美国国债有积极作用。值得注意的是,这可能是一场进行中的游戏,由于收益率如此低,国内日本投资者现在可以以每年只有1%的成本对冲回到日元的水准购买十年美国国债票据,导致日本综合收益率仅为1.19%。这一因素可能在未来一段时间内导致大量现金流入美国国债。

美国市场的另一个支撑因素可能是美国国内投资者流动的逆转。在过去几十年里,美国国内投资者已经转移了约9万亿美元的外国资产,从20世纪70年代的仅2%上涨至13%的投资组合。随着美元走强,如果美国的资金如2008年转向避免风险,其国内这些更高的收益可以导致资本流向国内。正如我们总是说波动带来机会

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