每日更新 - 特朗普对全球贸易交易和关税潜力的不满 The Daily Update - Trump's discontent with global trade deals and the potential of tariffs

在国际象棋中有一个开放模式称为“特龙姆波夫斯基进攻”,或更简单的说法“特龙姆”,其中两个玩家最终过早做出牺牲。上周末,马格纳斯·卡尔森在纽约开了世界冠军赛,以“特龙姆”为名向特朗普致敬,恭喜他仅在几天前,成为当选总统。这一开头很适宜,就像当选总统一样不寻常,并没有对那些选择参加游戏的人提供一定优势- 实际上,游戏以平局结束。

共和党粉饰派将热衷于进行类似的快速攻击,在任期早期实施减税和一些财政刺激和调整政策积极快速开展行动。但是,行政办公室仍然像以往一样具有挑战性和复杂性,内阁和其他任命者的新近流动不仅引起了议程分歧,而且引起了能力的关注。有超过4,000个职位需要填补,将有很多重要任命需要由市场评估,其中一些也需要参议院批准。共和国全国委员会主席普利巴斯作为参谋长的选择已经决定,特别是这个职位不需要批准或妥协。但是,同时宣布作为右翼巴特新闻的前执行主席史蒂夫·班农作为总统的高级参赞可能只是一个不合格任命的疯狂趋势的开始。(任命官方公布见greatagain.gov)

不应该理所当然地认为奥巴马政府最近8年来没有丑闻多么不寻常。与特朗普有着前所未有的利益冲突相比,这一对比是令人不安的。即使在早期阶段,他就失去了正统性,将他的金融资产的责任以假保密委托的形式转让给他的家人,同时要求他们进行秘密的安全审查。在这一点上,奥巴马最近的安慰言论似乎有一种令人沮丧的语境,或许很容易被忽视,因为他尊重总统府办公室。说特朗普有诸多成功机会与其说是呼吁人们保持希望不如说是让其保持衰退警惕;这暗示了下一届政府将继承的所有优势(与奥巴马上任时不同),但也许可以取消继承:如已经很低的失业率,收入增长,强大的国际关系,廉价石油和稳定的金融市场(到目前为止情况是这样)。在会议上,奥巴马说,“不管他带来什么经验或假设,这个办公室总有一种方式唤醒你,”,明显是清楚地认识到特朗普竞选承诺的不现实言辞,并补充说,“美国人民将在接下来的几年判断是否他会兑现承诺”。

特朗普不是一个传统的共和党人,我们仍然不知道他将在参议院将面临多少摩擦。我们已经看到奥巴马医改已经从“废除” 回溯至也许只是“改革”,而墨西哥边界上的“墙”现在可能最多是一个“篱笆”。 但是征收关税仍然具有真实可能性,而令人担心的是,总统退出条约可能不需要国会山的批准。“反弹道导弹条约”在乔治·布什任职时撤销,因此这种自主行动有先例,根据宪法法学教授迈克尔·多夫所说,“普遍理解是,在美国国际法中,总统有权单方面终止一项协议”。 这种外交事务上不受控制的权威和废除国际协定意味着保护主义威胁增长没有什么障碍。如果特朗普对其他战线上的失败表示失望和批评,这个几乎肯定会废除跨太平洋伙伴关系协议并曾承诺对中国进口商征收45%关税,对墨西哥进口商品征收35%关税的人或许会毫不犹豫追逐北美自由贸易协定,可能与世贸组织成员谈判,虽然在其看来是一场“灾难”。 在彼得森国际经济学研究所最近的一份说明中,奥利维尔·布兰查德说,这种保护主义政策可能首先是“主要象征性的”, 而在面对游说时是渐进的。但他补充说,“事情可能很快升级”, 这将使全球供应链受到质疑,破坏生产和贸易,降低生产力。

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