每日更新 - 英国秋季预算报表 The Daily Update - UK Autumn budget statement

距欧盟公民投票已有5个月的今天,英国财政大臣菲利普·哈蒙德提交了特雷莎·梅政府的第一份预算;这是就英国退欧对下议院提交的第一份秋季报表。简而言之:2017年和2018年的国内生产总值增长预测分别下降0.8%和0.4%; 计划借款在未来5年增加1220亿英镑; 对租房者和经济适用住房的一些细致支持; 针对“管理”或增加“国民生活工资”某些困境的措施,以及调和一些普遍信用改革; 公司税将削减到17%,同时进行广泛的新税制改革; 到2020年实现 2%赤字的新财政目标并降低债务。市场通胀预期上升; 英镑在报表期间回升至1.2435,但随后在美国数据出来后,在报表结束前下跌至1.2360。

今天之前,哈蒙德大臣已经提到英国“令人瞩目的”高债务水平,但今天证实,借款在未来5年将进一步增加1220亿英镑,以填补自英国退欧投票以来的黑洞,增加债务利息成本,但它也将帮助资助一个£230亿的新 “国家生产力投资基金”,该基金将逐步资助从运输基础设施到高科技创新的项目。

预算责任办公室修订了英国国内生产总值增长预测,今年略高于2.1%,但明年仅为1.4%,明显低于2016年3月的预测,这是因为“投资减少,更大的不确定性导致消费需求减弱,以及英镑贬值导致更高的通货膨胀”。 2018年的增长估计仍然低迷,虽然恢复到1.7%(比以前的估计低0.4%),且2019年和2020年保持在2.1%。增长预期的整体减少是由于去年秋季报表全面下降0.3个百分点-这是由于油价下跌和政府债务利率下降,虽然经济活跃性有所增加。这些数字与英格兰银行和经合组织的较低预测相符,但我们必须记住,“生产率增长的前景是大多数经济预测中最重要和最不确定的判断”,这正契合预算责任办公室臭名昭着的扇形图,其显示到2020年国内生产总值增长有80%的概率在1%到4%之间。

我们注意到也许存在一个有趣的技术性奇怪问题,即在计算公共部门净债务(PSND)时,预算不再误导性地说明来自被套期外汇储备的伪英镑收益。以前,因为欧元统计局的准则,它包括在资产上的这种英镑收益,而省略(英镑疲软)对冲衍生产品的相应损失;去年这一数额约为100亿英镑,这一数额将不会在国民核算中出现,而且随着英国退欧和英镑疲软,最近几个月可能会更加重要。

自从英国退欧投票以来英国财政的另一吸引点来自昨天的瑞士信贷2016年全球财富报告。该报告估计英国家庭财政将减少1.5万亿美元,相当于平均每个成人的累积资产价值减少3.3万美元。如果英国政策继续与潜在特朗普膨胀分歧,美元账面价值降低可能只是英国居民和投资者首先需要面对的。该报告还计算出全球财富将增长3.5万亿美元,达到256万亿美元,但这一“财富创造仅仅是自2008年以来首次跟上人口增长”。 随着人口增长放缓和全球贸易风险增加,全球整体增长面临强大的向下/侧面压力,而地区财政刺激和基础设施支出措施可能无济于事。

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