每日更新 - 美国国债,预选,墨西哥石油公司,卡塔尔 The Daily Update - UST, Pres elec, Pemex, Qatar




美国国债仍然处于近期交易区间的高位,在接下来的三天内620亿美元的季度退款也无济于事,尽管这三天里,我们有新的三年(240亿美元),十年(23亿美元)和长期债券(15亿美元)基准接受拍卖。但是信贷市场正进行一些好的买入,例如中东高档市场在一周表现特别好。我们在卡塔尔主权债券的股份有所收紧,2040年主权债券自10月中旬以来交易收紧5个基点至目前的+ 170个基点。我们的RVM计算这种债券的公允价值在大约+ 65个基点,可提供大约18%的回报和收益,其潜在价格升值为20点。

最近一个更加不稳定的问题是墨西哥政府拥有的综合石油公司,墨西哥石油公司,在特朗普民意调查占据优势时,其债券价格下跌,而克林顿占据优势时,价格复原。例如其2044年到期的利率5.5%的债券;这些债券在克林顿领先时目前的交易价格为88.90,而上周特拉普领先时为84.9。自从10月21日以来,这种债券仍然处于中间价位,高于92.00,所以目前该债券交易在近期高点4点和低点4点,反映了总统民意调查中的50:50分割。在目前价差为+ 385个基点,公允价值为169个基点的情况下,这些债券提供了大量的潜在回报来弥补波动性。墨西哥石油公司44目前交易处于4.5信用等级,回报和收益为公允价值的36%,但这意味着极度冒险。



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