每日更新 - 日本和俄罗斯将在2017年翻开新的一页?The Daily Update - Japan and Russia turning over a new leaf for 2017?

77年后,2016/17年是否意味着第二次世界大战最终结束?自1945年以来,日本和俄罗斯尚未正式解决关于《雅尔塔协定》中有关从北海道延伸到俄罗斯堪察加半岛的一些岛屿(特别是包括南部千岛群岛其中4个已知属于俄罗斯的岛屿和包括北方四岛已知属于日本的岛屿)的一些歧义的争端。日本首先在1855年控制了最近的岛屿(并在1875年和1905年俄罗斯日本战争期间夺取了围绕鄂霍次克海的整个一连串岛屿),但红军在第二次世界大战的最后时刻夺回了领土。

下周,由于俄罗斯总统普京计划在长门与日本首相安倍晋三泡“温泉”(温泉浴场),人们预期两国可能最终签署一个正式的和平条约,他们可以抛开困境,开始着手开发岛屿项目,促进经济联系和主要商业项目。读卖新闻引用普京的话说,“关于南部千岛群岛...我们准备考虑在一,二,三或四座岛屿上共同努力”, 并强调俄罗斯热切希望“两国关系全面正常化”。

相较于1956年的失败谈判和80年代和00年代的失败尝试,当前的努力更有可能实现的原因在于日本更注重联合俄罗斯联合群体,以保持面对中国主导地位的竞争力和重要性。这次会议应该建立在最近普京与安倍达成的良好愿望之上。普京在2000年谈判失败后于2008年写信给日本商讨重新谈判事宜,而安倍自上任以来冒着政治资本风险十多次与普京会面。

最近几个月,分裂的欧洲,美国总统候选人特朗普,亲莫斯科的法国总统候选人菲永等事件意味着俄罗斯加深与另一个亚洲合作伙伴的关系不再那么困难;而日本看起来越有可能受益于做出较小的领土让步,以便跟上中国日益增长的影响力和全球参与力。然而,对于双方来说,妥协仍然很难达成,因为对日本而言,在中国通过南海扩张继续扩大影响力的同时,如果放弃领土加强其国际地位是一个明显的弊病。

然而,无论这次过度关注的争端在这次峰会上得到解决,还是继续持续几十年,世界经济中心会继续向东转移,俄罗斯看起来越来越好地作为老一代和新生代超级大国的中间人利用全球能源和贸易。其外交政策预计将推动‘经济方案...超越传统能源利益,涉及医疗保健,城市发展,工业生产和技术’,比如俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司正准备就亚马尔北部主要液化天然气项目与联咏科技达成交易,甚至可能达成库页岛- 东京管道项目。正如俄罗斯 - 日本商业理事会执行董事伊戈尔·季亚琴科所言,'现在双方正就业务达成积极议程。’

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