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由于美元预期在12月联邦公开市场委员会会议之前保持相对强劲,中国人民银行易纲重申人民币应相对于CFETS篮子进行衡量,而不是与美元的简单双边汇率关系。我们继续期望人民币相对于篮子保持相对稳定,认为中国人民银行不会贬值货币,因为这将违背将经济扩张推向更强大且更可持续的消费者驱动型增长的目标。

与此同时,越来越多的人担心,由于中央银行对市场杠杆的紧紧控制,该国的债券市场在短期内可能仍然脆弱。由于我们不持有任何政府债务,这并没有影响我们的投资组合,但我们确信政策制定者采取措施消除低效率,在债券和公司部门挤压杠杆,同时对房地产市场实施紧缩措施,都是具有长期积极效应的。

随着市场试图下个月加息25个基点,更有挑战性的是确定特朗普总统对增长和通货膨胀真正意味着什么。迄今为止,特朗普的言论提出了四个主要领域的政策目标:税收改革,基础设施支出,放松管制和重新谈判现有的贸易关系。宏观措施与针对贸易的措施之间的平衡对于确定增长结果将是重要的,因为贸易干预可能对增长带来负面影响。首先,宏观措施很可能是实现增长的主要焦点; 经合组织目前预期美国在2017年增长2.3%,在2018年增长3%。但这必须与市场已经出现的紧缩货币条件相平衡。我们预计美联储将采取更快的紧缩措施,以应对任何潜在的通货膨胀影响。长期来看,曲线应该继续平缓; 如果短期增长的影响被更紧缩的货币政策抵消,长期增长将更弱。

支持斯特拉顿街非外国资产分析的理论框架认为,债务人和债权人的债券和货币表现根据世界是否处于通货膨胀金融市场状态或我们是否处于去杠杆化状态而不同。在前者状况下,资本从债权人流向债务人,而在后者状况下,资本以相反方向流动。由于美联储被迫更快采取紧缩措施,我们预期特朗普的政策将加速去杠杆化过程。

美元是世界上事实上的储备货币,因此由于这一角色享有“过高的特权”。因此,尽管美国是一个净债务国,自80年代中期以来非外国资产状况一直在恶化,与实际有效汇率的关系很弱。美国货币政策是全球资本流动的一个关键驱动因素:全球金融危机后,扩张性美国货币政策为世界提供了充分的廉价美元流动性,而不是去杠杆化,从而减少了这个时期的过度繁荣。如今,全球债务水平实际上上升,更糟糕的是全球经济增长疲软。国际货币基金组织估计,2015年全球非金融部门债务达到世界国内生产总值的225%。由于这个周期逆转,较弱的债务国受到最大压力,因为他们外债净额大,依靠美元发行外债。但是与2013年的“削减恐慌”一样,波动性可能会暂时蔓延至一些发行人,甚至是那些具有较强潜在实力的发行人,尽管我们预期更强劲的信贷会在适当时候反弹。

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