每日更新 - 中国...变化的迹象 The Daily Update - China...signs of change

有史以来第一次,中国主席将受欢迎出席瑞士达沃斯年度世界经济论坛。虽然没有正式宣布,但据报道,习近平将于明年一月参加在高山滑雪胜地举行的峰会; 以前中国总理出席了,但从来没有主席参加。预料之中的是,该会议将被英国退欧,欧洲反建立运动和美国总统权力过渡所掩盖,但我们预计习先生将有一个比以往更广阔的舞台,推动中国的全球影响力和亲贸行动的立场。相比特朗普政府下,美国将重塑贸易协定,撤出奥巴马的跨太平洋伙伴关系协议,中国牵头的亚洲基础设施投资银行和“一带一路”倡议将可能引起同样多关注。

在中国,随着11月贸易数据的大幅反弹,全球和国内需求似乎都有所改善,超过了市场预期。以人民币计算,出口增长5.9%,进口增长13%;这是自今年3月以来的美元计算的出口增长的第一个月。如果美国继续限制从中国进口,虽然中国有许多选择可以选择,并且目前正在与英国谈判,我们预计中国出口将面临压力。我们预计英国可能是中国最近的盟友之一,去年两国贸易额刚刚接近800亿美元。

由于铜,原油,铁矿石和煤炭需求激增,中国的进口在两年内跃升最多。一个较弱的货币和更强的商品价格的组合表明中国的生产者物价指数将继续推高。更高的生产者物价指数通货膨胀应导致企业盈利能力的提高,因为这两个指标在历史上是正相关的。更高和更稳定的通货膨胀已帮助中国央行转向更中性的货币政策立场。

11月份更强劲的采购经理人指数数据和显著改善的贸易数据表明进一步的经济稳定。因为像住房部门的紧缩政策,供应方改革的升级开始过渡,政府更积极的财政推动,加上更中性,更紧缩的货币立场,明年应该是备受关注的一年。中国的增长预期将在今年实现,并将保持渐进趋势,在6.5%-6.7%之间,预计2016年第4季度保持预期上升惊喜而进入2017年第一季度。

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