每日更新 - 联邦公开市场委员会正在快速实施正常化 The Daily Update - FOMC on a fast track to normalisation

联邦公开市场委员会于12月14日决定将联邦基金利率提高至0.75%,并预期在2017年进一步加息。媒体将让我们相信,政策利率向估计约3%的长期规范范围正常化的速度加快反映了美国经济增长强劲以及特朗普总统领导下采取巨额财政刺激方案的预期。第四季度国内生产总值的预期上调也往往会在工作人员的预测工作中影响第一季度国内生产总值预测,从而解释了2017年的小幅预期。2019年预期就更小了,几乎不值得一提。1.9%的预测保持在或低于美国长期潜在增长率(2%),这本身就处于工作人员最新估计的1.5%至2%的高端范围。

相比之下,联邦公开市场委员会参与者对适当货币政策评估的“点图”已经成为头条新闻。尽管12月政策利率的平均水平要求在2017年实现25个基点的三次加息,而不是9月份会议上设想的两次加息,但新的前景仍然没有参与者在6月份设想的那么积极,并且在大多数参与者中,大多数参与者似乎已经签署了最新的工作人员研究,研究以有力的证据表明,人口统计可以解释所有长期中性利率下降到不到1%实际价值(如果通货膨胀稳定在2%的目标,按名义价值计算为3%)的情况。少数成员仍反对呼吁联邦基金利率上升到3.5%至4%,但这种不同意见越来越与多数意见不同步。

如果国会批准一个巨额财政刺激方案,工作人员预测将相应地向上调整,不可避免的后果是必须提高2018年及以后的通货膨胀预测。简而言之,经济增长或国家财政政策制定方面出现的令人意外的情况可能会有助于美联储采取更积极的措施。 12月的联邦公开市场委员会决定还不是呼吁尽早提高利率的感人号召,但是如果政客认为财政政策是一顿免费的午餐,这是一个危险信号。

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