每日更新 - 非农就业报告 The Daily Update - NFPR

今天11月非农业就业报告显示增加了178,000个工作岗位,这与预期相符合。前一个月的161,000份就业岗位增加量下修至14.2万。失业率从10月份的4.9%下降至9年来的最低点4.6%,参与率稍微下降至62.7%。平均小时收益抵消了较上一次报告中2.8%,月环比增长0.1%,年同比增长2.5%的预期和中立报告。

这一数据发布与美联储最近的评论相结合,使得12月份的利率上升几乎是不可避免的,且市场一度预期会100%提高利率。更具挑战性的是特朗普当选总统对增长和通货膨胀真正意味着什么。

迄今为止,特朗普的提案提出了四个政策瞄准的主要领域:旨在减少企业和个人所得税的税收改革,基础设施支出计划,解除管制和重新谈判现有贸易关系。宏观措施与针对贸易的措施之间的平衡对于确定增长结果将是重要的,因为贸易干预存在对经济增长构成负面影响的风险。首先,宏观措施很可能是实现增长的主要焦点; 经合组织目前预测美国在2017年增长2.3%,在2018年增长3%。但这必须与市场已经出现的紧缩货币条件相平衡。

我们预计美联储将采取比预期更快的紧缩措施,以应对任何潜在的通货膨胀影响,并且长期曲线应该继续平坦;如果短期增长的影响被更紧缩的货币政策抵消,长期增长将更弱。10年期国库券收益率已经从7月的1.36%回落至撰写本文时的约2.40%,表明货币状况大幅收紧。这给消费者带来了更高的利率:美国住房抵押贷款15年固定银行利率已从9月27日的2.59%的低收益率上升到12月1日的3.2%。经济增长和利率预期的增长使美元指数从10月初的约96增加到今天的约101,代表了货币状况的再次颇大紧缩:这一趋势可能加剧,而欧洲央行和日本央行保持在缓动模式。

支持斯特拉顿街的净国外资产分析的理论框架认为,债务人和债权人的债券和货币的表现在世界是处于通货膨胀的金融市场状况时期,资本从债权人流向债务人,而在我们处于去杠杆化阶段,资本以相反方向流动。因为美联储被迫加紧紧缩,我们预期特朗普的政策将加速去杠杆化过程。

美元是世界上事实上的储备货币,因此对这一角色享有“过高的特权”。 因此,尽管美国是一个净债务国,自80年代中期以来净国外资产状况一直在恶化,但美元与实际有效汇率的关系很弱。美国货币政策是全球资本流动的一个关键驱动因素:全球经融危机后扩张性美国货币政策为世界提供了充足的廉价美元流动性,而不是去杠杆化,减少了这个时期的过度繁荣。现在,全球债务水平实际上上升,更糟糕的是全球经济增长疲软的状况。国际货币基金组织估算,2015年全球非金融部门债务占世界国内生产总值的225%。由于这一周期逆转,外债净额大且依靠以美元发行外债的较弱债务国将受到最大压力。但是,与2013年的“缩减恐慌”一样,波动性可能暂时扩散到具有更强潜在基础的一些发行机构。

这意味着高等级债券,特别是来自债权国的债券,仍然是我们的优先选择,至少目前是这样。我们目前的纯IG基金拥有A2平均评级,希望能够在某时能以扩大利差获得较低等级信贷。

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