每日更新 - 俄罗斯 The Daily Update - Russia

本周,嘉能可和卡塔尔投资局宣布以113亿美元的价格收购俄罗斯石油公司19.5%股权,这是俄罗斯政府从资产私有化筹集资金的积极措施。

私有化和将国有企业分红比例提高到50%是政府目前寻求利用资金预算赤字的路线之一。俄罗斯的财政缓冲虽然从强劲的基础开始,但由于其主权财富基金正在逐渐耗尽,处于减弱状态:预计在2017年,储备基金将消耗1.151万亿卢布,这意味着其几乎耗尽。全国福利基金将在2017年提供6596亿卢布,这一数额到2018年将达到11.4万亿卢布,然后缓和到1368亿卢布。

考虑到俄罗斯石油公司私有化,预测2016年俄罗斯预算赤字为国内生产总值的3.7%,而2017年将缩小至3.2%,直至2018年的2.2%和2019年的1.2%。这一预测是保守的,因为它按照40美元/桶的油价计算,这远低于当前约54美元/桶的布伦特原油价格。显然,如果坚持与欧佩克石油达成的生产削减协议并阻止美国页岩生产的大幅增加,将产生积极效果。

但鉴于不遵守欧佩克生产削减的历史,俄罗斯人似乎并不知足。鉴于低政府债务水平可能会上升,政府仍然有相对保守的目标,即来自欧洲债券市场的70亿美元的资金,尽管俄罗斯可能对过度依赖制裁这一点持谨慎态度。事实上,我们注意到俄罗斯正在寻求多元化其资金基础,并希望在2017年上半年发行人民币计价债券的报道:报道显示不同期限的价值约为10亿美元的初期款项。俄罗斯和中国在11月德米特里·梅德韦杰夫和李克强会晤后发表了联合声明,宣布有兴趣加强金融合作,并支持这种债券发行计划。

其他替代资金渠道仍然存在:俄罗斯税率低,公司税率为20%,所得税只有13%,尽管由于经济疲软和2018年总统选举,这不太可能是第一个停靠港。预算包括一些削减支出,预计2017年从16.2万亿卢布(占国内生产总值的18.7%)降至2019年的16万亿卢布(占国内生产总值的16.2%)。军事支出是削减针对的一个领域;预测显示它将从国内生产总值的3.3%下降到2019年的2.8%。

由于积极的非外国资产头寸(2011年占国内生产总值的11.5%),俄罗斯能够经受制裁。然而,随着唐纳德·特朗普当选和弗朗索瓦·菲永成为2017年法国总统竞选中强劲的竞争者,当然有改善国际关系的余地。这在12月1日弗拉基米尔·普京的国情咨文中也得到明显的体现,因为他采取了更加缓和的语气,说:“与我们国外的一些视俄罗斯为敌人的伙伴不同,我们不寻求也从不寻求敌人。我们需要朋友。但我们不会允许我们的利益受到侵犯或忽视。”

但是,与中国关系的深化似乎是不可避免的,弗拉基米尔·普京说“俄罗斯在东方政策中是积极主动的,不是因为我们可能有任何暂时的考虑,也不是因为与美国或欧盟关系的冷淡,而是因为这样有利于俄罗斯的长期利益,符合全球发展趋势。”

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