每日更新 - 韩国总统–朴槿惠再见?The Daily Update - South Korean President Park - Goin' bye?

如果议会能够实现“政府安全转移”,那么被剥夺了权利的韩国总统朴槿惠便提出辞职。在电视公告中,身陷丑闻的总统告诉失望民众,她会“按照立法者为稳定移交权力而商定的时间表和法律程序下台”。 这些言辞很快被对手政治家驳回,认为其试图阻碍或使待决弹劾多余,而在本周五就可以就该弹劾进行投票(人们可以称之为试图让“理查德·尼克松”下台)。上周末,全国各地的街道上约有200万人抗议朴总统,是该国历史上最大规模的抗议活动。

似乎2016年对于民主选举产生的领导人来说是糟糕的一年:从巴西被弹劾的罗塞夫和马来西亚遭贬谪的纳吉布到失望的大卫·卡梅伦和冰岛蹑手蹑脚的Gunnlaugson。领导人似乎有无数路线阻碍办公或耻辱自己,包括少数上述(正式)违反联邦预算,欺诈指控,不周全的公民投票承诺和明显的逃税。加上让朴女士臭名昭著的拉斯普京类型的插手政府政策的神秘主义者,我们想知道明年,在位者如菲律宾杜特尔特和即将就任者如特朗普,助长这一趋势的可能性(更不用说许多其他放纵的领导人和上涨煽动者)。

有趣的是,像中国总统习近平和俄罗斯总统普京这样的领导人仍然分别获得87%和82%的赞成票,而朴女士现在只有4%。但没有领导人对剥夺特权不感到不安;即便朴女士在年初获得了大约70%的简短支持率。然而,这种公共动荡和驱逐领导人的两个经常性原因似乎在这些经济体中的可能性要小得多,就像在我们可投资领域的其他国家一样。首先,当没有真正的替代政府时,这些领导人更不容易受到广泛的谴责。显然,这在长期上具有相关的否定性,但最近的历史告诉我们抗议投票在面对这样的政治基础设施时获得动力是多么困难。第二,更积极的一面是这两个国家没有受外国资产净值(NFA)重债。

面对经济增长缓慢(人口密度越来越高,城市化接近路易斯转型点,保护主义风险...带来的全球经济日趋衰落),作为一个高于平均增长率的债权人可以给予政府更多的经济空间,选择最佳的财政路径,用有利的政策安抚民众。即使这些政策长期不可持续,它们在周期性低点或改革期间可以作为支撑,并且只要国家能够在短期/中期内能够负担得起,它们仍然可行。监测外国资产净值是监测这一现象的有效方法,有证据表明没有净外国债权国政府曾经拖欠国际债务,而且这种国际债权人违约的决定除了通常的长期声誉损害外,还带来可能带来海外资产风险从而不利。

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