每日更新 - 贸易和特朗普 The Daily Update - Trade and Trump

特朗普总统对全球贸易的实际影响是否会保护主义运动言辞一样消极,尚不明确,只是在更好的情况下,特朗普显然希望重新谈判现状。虽然(与加拿大和墨西哥的)北美自由贸易协定是一个特别脆弱的协议,可称之为“可能是最糟糕的经同意的贸易协议”, 任何与美国贸易出现大量双边盈余的国家很可能发现自己处于引火线之上。

美国财政部已经向国会发布了一份关于美国主要贸易伙伴外汇政策的半年度报告,部分反映其主要贸易伙伴的汇率和外向政策。在10月的报告中,德国,中国,日本,韩国,台湾和瑞士都在监视名单上,这些国家具有以下3个特征中的至少2个:对美双边贸易实质性顺差,实质性经常账户或持久单边外汇干预。即便如此,在该审查期间,没有一个所述国家显示所有3个特征,或被认定为货币操纵者。然而,这个国家名单在特朗普政府下可能会受到更严格的审查。

中国与美国的贸易关系似乎是特朗普竞选时表示货币操纵担忧的一个明显靶子。尽管如此,虽然人民币兑美元汇率已经走弱,但兑贸易伙伴一篮子货币贬值不明显。美国财政部评论也指出,“中国对外汇市场的干预力图防止人民币迅速贬值,这将对中国和全球经济产生负面影响。财政部估计,从2015年8月至2016年8月,中国售出超过5,700亿美元外币资产,旨在防止人民币快速贬值。”虽然中国的经常账户盈余确实在2007年达到国内生产总值10%的过度和不可持续水平,但在2011 – 2015年间,其已经回调到更合理的1.9-2.7%范围内。但是,由于中国是美国最大的贸易伙伴之一,双方仍然在绝对数量上呈现大量经营帐户盈余,似乎特朗普政府可能至少推动进一步的贸易再平衡,正如财政部报告强调需要改革促进中国国内消费。

但我们认为德国也可能会由于大量盈余而遭批评:德国在16年上半年的经常账户盈余为国内生产总值的9.4%,与美国的双边贸易顺差较大。美国财政部指出:“这种盈余意味着大量超额储蓄,而且这些储蓄中的一部分可以至少部分用于支持德国国内需求,同时也减少经常账户盈余,并显著促进欧元区和全球再平衡。”

特朗普还宣布,他打算退出“太平洋伙伴关系协定”(TPP),这是一个拟议的贸易协议,试图“谈判公平的双边贸易协议,从而恢复就业和工业。”但是,彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员,国际货币基金组织前首席经济学家奥利维尔·布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)指出,征收关税可能会降低经济增长,增加经济衰退的可能性:“关税自身可能减少进口,增加国内商品需求,并增加产量(虽然,如罗伯特·曼德尔五十多年前所指出的,汇率可能会足以最终导致产量下降)。但“自身”假设是不对的:美国的关税很可能导致关税战争,从而减少出口。进口和出口的减少不会是一次洗牌。在需求方面,较高的进口价格将导致美联储进一步加息。在供应方面,在我看来,更重要的是,关税将会对全球供应链造成问题,破坏生产和贸易,降低生产力。”

有趣的是,特朗普的一些关键受任者并不都是强硬派保护主义者:所以如何从字面上理解特朗普的言辞仍然不明确; 毕竟他是畅销书《交易的艺术》的作者。

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