每日更新 - 然后是27 The Daily Update - And then there were 27

英国公众投票已经结束了,现在鲍里斯•约翰逊和奈杰尔•法拉奇已经获得了他们的“独立日”,然而,由于支持英国退欧的选票52%与支持英国留欧的选票48%非常接近,所以在这个问题上英国仍然存在分歧。在英国,退欧事件目前提高了苏格兰呼吁再一次举行公民投票的可能性,因为苏格兰绝大多数投票表决支持英国留在欧盟。伦敦市有870万的选民,也绝大多数投票表决支持英国留欧,目前社会媒体活动也呼吁伦敦组建它自己的城市国家并留在欧盟!戴维•卡梅伦已经宣布他十月份辞职的决定,并将允许新首相就英国退出欧盟事件进行谈判。

由于这个结果,金融市场已经乱了阵脚,市场反应也非常消极:英镑兑换美元的汇率严重下降,已经达到了1985年以来的最低水平,伦敦金融时报指数也下降了5%,创了新低。欧洲股权市场也因此遭受到了打击,诸如国债之类的避险资产已经开始回升,日元也增值了,其兑换美元的交易值约为102.53。

英国财政部曾在一个‘出局的’投票事件中预测,到2030年,英国国内生产总值将由于英国与欧盟结束的交易关系类型,而受到3.5%-9.5%的负面影响。对于评级机构而言,英国退出欧盟事件使其产生了消极信用:标普警告称,英国可能失去其AAA信用评级;穆迪称(英国被其评为Aa1级),这将会“拖累英国的经济和财政状况”。英国已经有7%的国内生产总值(2015年第四季度)活期存款账户赤字,这个结果非常不利于资本流动和外商直接投资。除此之外,这一点必须作为引起欧洲经济增长的负面影响以及全球经济产生任何后果的考虑因素。

就在公民投票之前,让-克洛德•容克在谈判中表明了欧盟的立场,明确指出“我们已经与英国首相达成了协议,他获得得到了他能获得到的最大值,我们也给予了我们所能给予的最大值。所以将不会再重新进行谈判。”因此,在法律颁布前,英国议会将必须通过英国退出欧盟的决议。但有趣的是,绝大多数议会成员公开表明自己是在“留欧”的阵营。当这项决议通过了,并且与提前举行选举有关的决议都通过了,那么英国将不得不援引《里斯本条约》里的第50条,正式开始进行离开欧盟的流程。

显然,关于英国是否应该提前举行选举将会展开一场辩论。一旦新首相到位,各方都能在英国退出欧盟的时局中制定出他们的愿景规划。根据现行法律,议会的固定任期为5年,但也有两种可能的例外。第一种是,如果政府不信任投票由议会大多数成员通过并且新政府在14天之内不能组建成功。第二种是,如果英国下议院三分之二的成员支持早日举行大选。

英国退出欧盟对欧洲其他国家也产生了广泛的影响,反政府、反紧缩运动越来越普遍。除了希腊和葡萄牙这些更为显著的例子,意大利的反建制五星党运动也正在风行(上周已经赢得了19/20的市长选举),该党派领袖毕普•格里罗呼吁欧盟举行全民公投。荷兰的民意调查也显示绝大多数选民希望欧盟成员国举行公民投票;今天在英国退出欧盟的结果出来后,基尔特•威尔德斯就该问题也呼吁全民公投,他在今年3月的选举中当选为主席。在法国,玛丽安•勒潘呼吁法国拥有自己的公民投票。而在德国,极右翼政党一直在壮大发展。本周日,西班牙主要政党在首次选举时未能组成联合政府后,西班牙又重新进行了民意调查,这将是另一个值得注意的有趣的结果。

毫不奇怪,欧盟理事会主席唐纳德•图斯克,接下来对今天英国成功退欧的评论“我会建议领导们对欧盟的未来进行更多的反思”。

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