每日更新 - 英国退欧 The Daily Update - Brexit

对于英国来说,这是重要的一周的开始,在周四的英国欧盟公民投票上,人们可能投票的方式使得气氛看起来再一次有了变化。经过上周末的民意调查以及首次国会议员乔•考克斯惨遭杀害后,选择留欧的阵营看起来仿佛又回到了领先地位。上周末媒体上就有广泛的报道,称工党议员的死亡将导致公民的意见逐渐偏离退欧。

奈吉尔-法拉奇,尽管他算不上退欧竞选团队的一个官方成员,却发出了很有代表意义的说话,他昨天说道“直到这场悲剧发生前,我们都充满着动力,这场悲剧对于参与整个竞选的每个人都产生了影响。”而且“当你踏上了这条路,你就必须充满动力。我不知道在接下来的三到四天的过程里将会发生什么,但这绝对是一个有严重心理问题的人才会有的行为。我们所看到的是一个恐怖主义行为。”

据上周末进行的民意调查数据统计显示,结果与Opinium民意调查结果说的44%退欧、44%留欧以及舆观调查告诉我们的43%退欧、44%留欧、9%未定非常的接近。然而,在乔•考克斯死后,唯一真正完全进行了的民意调查结果显示那些选择留欧的人数有了明显的上升。据领英的民意调查结果显示,支持留欧的票数上升到了45%,而退欧的票数为42%,还有13%未定。

在接下来的几天里,双方阵营的重量级政治人物将排在最后出场以进行拉票。以目前的情形来看,英国留在欧盟的隐性概率徘徊在73%左右,对于上星期后半星期的数据来说,这是一个很大向上的增长。在周四的某个时刻,留欧的几率低至了61%。

有趣的是,星期四的投票中将不会出炉官方的民意调查结果。这主要是因为在这次全民公投中不能重复一般选举已产生的民意调查结果。就一般选举来说,由它产生的民意调查结果会试图去衡量人们在投票中的摇摆不定,人们会被问到他们刚刚是如何投票的,这次投票是不是不同于以前的投票。然而,揭示别人如何投票这种行为在英国是非法的,更谈不上去问基本的投了还是没投的问题了。

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