每日更新 - 英国退欧问题, 央行按兵不动 The Daily Update - Brexit concerns, Central banks hold

四家最有影响力的中央银行制定了他们的货币政策后,进展安全的一周持续到了今天。一切都没什么变化!

由于英国是否是欧盟成员国的不确定性持续主宰着市场的气氛,所以英国央行保持其政策立场毫不奇怪。事实上,市场目前定价消减的概率比加息概率更高,这种情况将持续到2017年。本周英国金边债券10年期、20年期、30年期的基准收益率已跌破了最低记录,只要看看市场观点是多么的悲观就知道了。英镑也受到了冲击,本周英镑兑美元的汇率跌幅超过了2.2%,在写该文的时候英镑兑日元的汇率也下滑到多年来的最低水平。据彭博社的经济学家说,根据目前的水平,英镑兑美元汇率可能经历跌幅高达20%的风险, 如果选民选择退欧,据中间估计如果最后英国留欧,那么将会有一个1.45美元—1.50美元的反弹。

避风港基准收益率本周也在进一步下滑;10年期德国国债收益率本周二首次打破记录跌入负值,其当前的交易值为-0.02%;一个市场商已经表示他的10年期国债收益率的年终预测将达到负10个基点。除了英国退欧的问题以外,欧洲央行最近扩大了其量化宽松计划,一个月买进了600亿欧元债务,吸纳了更多的国债却造成了现金流问题,给已经是历史最低的收益率造成了更大的压力。央行目前按兵不动,接下来在10月份的会议上市场定价可能有超过50%的机会削减。

留在欧盟, 至少目前来看,加上瑞士央行的政策限制,瑞士法郎会面临恢复增值的压力。瑞士30年期基准收益率的曲线上目前交易值为负值。法郎的进一步增值压力预计会在下周的公民投票前显示出来,如果英国选民确实选择退欧,我们预计瑞士央行和日本央行可能为了捍卫他们的本国货币而对市场对其的不利因素采取干预措施。

至于更多的货币政策决定,美联储鸽派昨日没有转向收紧政策。使我们感到惊讶的是,对于这个现象没有成员有异议。中央银行的点状图继续显示今年的两次中位加息,虽然明年和2018年将加3次(从4次下降)。 尽管一些成员在月初的时候就已经发表评论说风险是最低限度的,英国退欧的威胁仍然笼罩着央行。当被问及英国退出欧盟的可能性时,耶伦发表评论说,做出按兵不动的这个决定的一个影响因素之一是“全球金融市场的经济和金融状况的结果”以及“美国经济的前景”。

益普索•莫里和Survation/IG的民意调查最接近地预测了今日早些时候发布的苏格兰公投的电话调查结果,显示退欧的票数为53%处于领先阵营(留欧票数47%),IG民意调查结果是45%的人支持退欧而42%的人支持留欧。随着民意调查继续掩盖和影响市场方向,这将是公民投票前非常有趣的一周。我们继续在我们的投资控股上发现价值,并凭着我们当前的杠铃策略而可以保持无忧无虑,虽然是处在AAA债券的位置,但可以吸收BBB控股收益, 使用远端乖离率创建一个可以自卫的A3投资组合。

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