每日更新 - 中国,新兴市场,新兴市场指数,摩根士丹利资本国际公司 The Daily Update - China still not an emerging market?

为了满足摩根士丹利资本国际公司允许将中国A股纳入新兴市场的要求,中国似乎将不得不再等一年,并推进进一步的改革。这个重新归类已经悬空多年, 昨天摩根士丹利资本国际公司表示不得不再次将其推迟——理由是资本市场通达性和透明度还有待增强。和往年相比,它现在似乎考虑更多的是过去这12个月的加速改革(缓和了2015年11月份国际货币基金组织要完全将中国人民币列入国际货币基金组织的特别提款权的形势)。

在纳入分类之前,摩根士丹利资本国际公司预先指定了中国需要达到的三个突出的核心标准。更精简的和可预见的配额分配的预期似乎已经达到了,至于澄清有关于受益权的法律,则仍然是一个主要关注的问题。然而,中国当局方面也存在着各种问题,他们倾向于控制他们的股票市场——体现在2015年的崩盘和大部分中国市场跨越贸易的暂停。同时有关于共同基金能力应对大额赎回的每月赔偿限制超过20%造成的影响,目前也对纳入分类制造了障碍。

从这样一个最终的分类结果可以看出,中国大陆股票正逐渐被列入它们的新兴市场指数、以及交易所交易基金或者针对这些指数的基准基金。尽管结果已经如此,核心的摩根士丹利资本国际公司新兴市场指数中,中国股市(主要是在美国和香港的交易)占据了25%,世界第二大经济体仍在成比例地减持。中国的国内生产总值已经比目前在摩根士丹利资本国际公司新兴市场指数占比超过15%的韩国高出7倍多。一旦分类被确定下来, 很有可能第一步就是中国A股额外5%的部分配置。接下来按当前的实施路线估计, 在被完全列入该分类后,中国占该指数的比例将上升到大概44%——以其他可以预期到的变化为例,比如韩国过渡到发达市场。

 这样的趋势已经在中国人民币与美元计价指数以及交易所交易基金之间形成了差异,而交易所交易基金在中国大量硬通货新兴市场的持有量少于5%。这种失真可能意味着一些投资者正不知不觉地对中国进行减持,直到中国被列入新兴市场的最终指定出来,他们才可能会进一步增加对中国的投入。因为摩根士丹利资本国际公司推迟把中国列入分类的决定,中国A股下跌了1.1%,但又以1.6%的收盘强势扭转了这一损失——至于这次反弹有多少是中国当局为了保住面子而驱使的,市场也无法确定。这就是中国的两面性,日益增长的经济优势难免不受市场不当行为的玷污。尽管如此,增长的趋势还将继续,一旦中国的市场成熟,并且中国认识到进一步整合带来的好处,到那个时候,摩根士丹利资本国际公司新兴市场指数与交易所交易基金就只能是在玩自己追赶自己的游戏了。

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