每日更新 - 意大利,意大利银行 The Daily Update - Italy

关于意大利地方选举结果的媒体报道好像已经被英国退欧的报道冲得有点黯然失色,这些看起来像是民粹主义政治在反对现任政权和欧洲财政紧缩方面取得进展的又一个例子。正如我们之前所说的,没有欧洲财政、统一的财政政策、功能齐全的再分配机制,就在债权人和债务之间创建欧元货币联盟,是有问题的。在现行体制下,减少失衡的调整过程中已经采用了紧缩路线,就低增长和通货紧缩压力来说,债务国已经受到了最严重的打击,并由于债务核销的缺失而加剧。希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙已经经历了好多次政治动荡,有迹象表明,本周意大利可能也会步上这条路。

意大利总理马泰奥·伦齐,批评了欧洲的预算赤字规则,并指出“欧洲采取了错误的路子,单靠紧缩是不够的。”然而,就公众的关注和市政选举最初阶段对他政党的惩罚而论,他的话显然是不够的。在罗马的第一轮投票中,反紧缩和反建制的五星运动党赢得了35.3%投票,领先于伦齐的民主党候选人,取得了25%投票的罗伯托·贾凯蒂。虽然此次地方选举还将继续进行,但这是个挫折。更严重的是,伦齐表示,如果他在10月份宪法改革和针对改革的区域减少参议院立法权的公民投票上落选了,他将退职。

毫无疑问,意大利经济一直低迷:经过三年的紧缩,2015年实际国内生产总值增长了0.8%,预计2016年仅会增长1.1%。事实上,国际货币基金组织预测,直到21世纪20年代中期,意大利都将不会回到它2007年(危机发生前)的增长水平。5月份,意大利对抗通货紧缩与消费者物价指数膨胀的比率下降了0.3%。它面临着诸如人口老龄化,劳动生产力和竞争力下降等挑战,这些增长的制约因素加剧了处在这种状态下的国家的高债务水平和欧洲的财政紧缩情况。欧盟预测,2016年2.4%的预算赤字将比2015年的2.6%有轻微下降,政府总债务占国内生产总值的132.7%。

意大利还面临着需要解决银行业不良债务问题的挑战。这限制了信贷的增长,并拖累了经济增长。据估计,意大利不良贷款(NPLs)有3600亿欧元,占贷款总额的18%,占国内生产总值的22%,虽然‘痛苦’,但严重拖欠的不良贷款将近2000亿欧元。净准备金估计将近850亿欧元。

随着数十亿欧元基金的形成,在解决不良债务方面已经取得了一些进展,亚特兰特估计大约有50亿欧元用于帮助小银行筹集资金以及清理不良贷款。该基金是由大型银行提供资金的。此外,为了加快取消抵押品赎回权,破产法也被提议改善。今年早些时候,意大利也与欧盟达成了协议,据此协议,意大利银行可将不良贷款证券化为特殊目的机构,开始释放出新贷款的银行资产负债表。银行可以获得政府担保,但仅限于贷款投资级别为高级的贷款。银行将不得不承认被确认的价值以及坏账售给特殊目的机构的价格之间的差异损失,因为市场价格将会比被确认的价值要更低。因此,这一举措充其量也只能看到一部分坏账证券化。

在意大利银行业可以被认为是“健康的”并且其经济恢复到更强劲的增长轨道之前,需要进行更多的改革和调整

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