每日更新 - 日本 The Daily Update - Japan

非常规货币政策和负收益率继续带来意想不到的后果。在全球范围内,目前越来越多的主权债券(超过10万亿美元)在以负收益率进行交易,其中包括了德国的10年期国债。由于负收益率和正在推行的量化宽松政策的影响,和原本希望的相比,结果变得不是那么容易预测。例如,货币的波动并不一定就如央行预测的那样:拿日本来说,在今年早些时候的负收益率的转变,本来预计能够帮助货币贬值并促进经济增长和通货膨胀。而事实上,日元却升值了,加上在最新的会议上,日本央行保持政策不变,日元兑换美元打破了105的水平,日元升值的现象还将加剧。在写作该文章的时候,日元兑换美元的交易值为104.28,目前市场看来并没有接受政府官员‘贬低’日元的尝试。财政部长麻生太郎呼吁全球的协调方案,以解决外汇市场上这些无序的变动。

日本面临的困难也包含影响其信用评级的风险:6月13日,惠誉国际肯定了日本长期外国评级都为“A”,但是随后观点又从稳定转变为消极。他们指出,政府推迟消费税增加的决定并没有附带任何补偿措施,从而降低了惠誉国际对日本财政巩固计划的信心。消费税上调被视为中央政府和地方政府平衡20个财政年度的主要财政赤字的一个重要驱动因素。因此,现在惠誉国际希望,直到2024年日本的一般政府债务占GDP的比率能从2016年底的245%每年增长1到2个百分点。但我们注意到,公共债务数据很高的主要原因是国内融资(日本有很乐观的国外资产净额状况)。为了抵消这些负面影响,惠誉国际对其经济增长的评估已经是最低限度了,估计从2016年的0.7%仅上升到0.8%,并修正了其2017年的预期经济增长为0.7%。

由于日本央行的政策的推动,使得日本10年期国债的收益率在写作该文章时达到负0.16%。有趣的是,日本投资商们增加了海外债券的购入,今年迄今为止已购入海外债券1092亿美元,特别是美国债券,年初至今其接受的显著现金流入量达到了578亿美元(据4月30日的数据)。另外,三菱东京日联银行,日本国债的一级交易商之一,宣布它即将退出这个市场:虽然一级交易商们都有一定的特权,但他们也必须至少出价所发行债券的4%。然而,当大型银行持续减持他们对日本国债的控股时,一级交易商这个角色也许就不再那么有吸引力了。也就是说,今年的19到23周内,外国投资商们将是日本国债的净买家!

对我们来说,日本和外国投资商们应该看看债权国的正收益率和中东以及俄罗斯等地的准主权风险,选择在固定收益市场中仍然看起来最引人注目的亚洲市场。

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