每日更新 - 净国外资产模型及2016年欧洲杯 The Daily Update - NFA and Euro 2016

6月10日星期五,2016年欧洲杯开赛,主场球队和赌球者最爱的,法国队对罗马尼亚队。英国外交部发出警告说会有“恐怖主义的高威胁”存在,法国政府已经发布了一个可以替代人口警报和信息系统的被称为“赛普”(人口信息预警系统)的恐怖预警应用程序,来应对如此巨大的安全挑战。尽管有着挥之不去的威胁,250多万足球迷将前往法国,去感受欧洲大陆最大的体育盛会的氛围。空中食宿网站表示,它正准备迎接25万游客和世界各地的球迷,其中包括3.7万美国球迷和大概1万澳大利亚球迷。

这些球迷将给东道国带来显著的消费能力,全国各地都将感受到此次欧洲赛所带来的好处,因为这些比赛将会在10个不同的体育场或者城市举行,整个国家都至少会从大量涌入的游客身上获益。这对法国来说将会是一次非常必要的推动,法国中央银行昨天宣布,2016年第二季度经济预测显示其国内生产总值降至0.2%,而2016年第一季度上升0.5%。

如果我们使用斯特拉顿街的净国外资产模型(NFA)作为24个球队每队表现的说明,我们可以提出一个令人意外的优胜者(总之在足球方面)。如果我们按较高的NFA星级评级选择优胜者,瑞士将会是决赛中战胜比利时的彻底的优胜者,赌球者赌瑞士胜出的几率在50/1。这些球队将会在半决赛中对战德国队(赌球者第二喜欢的球队,胜出几率4/1)以及瑞典队(胜出几率100/1),因为在四分之一决赛中德国队和瑞典队击败了俄罗斯队、奥地利队、意大利队和法国队(胜出几率3/1)。排名的最后将会被冰岛队(最后一名)、葡萄牙队以及新参赛的阿尔巴尼亚队(赌球者最不看好的球队,胜出几率300/1)占据。

很遗憾荷兰队没有参加预选赛,如果他们参加了他们将可以进入决赛,但仍将输给瑞士队。英国队可以通过小组赛阶段,但仍将失手四分之一决赛。虽然有些巧合的相关性,我们不会依靠2016年欧洲杯的净国外资产模型分析来预测决赛结果。我们希望所有的球队和球迷都能有好运和安全的旅行。

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