每日更新 - 非农就业人口 The Daily Update - Non-farm payrolls



就业机会曾经是美国经济最强的数据之一,但进行的数据也表现出了疲弱的迹象。然而,本月的数据也承载着Verizon罢工的畸变,劳工部估计此次罢工可令3.51万人失业。珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)近期讲话表示在“未来数月”“很可能”适合加息,这使得美联储在继续观察经济如何表现上具有灵活性,也表明近期的疲软就业数据无法形成趋势。即便如此,近期消费数据更倾向于稍显强劲,通胀数据尽管持续温和,却逐渐走高:4月核心物价指数(PCE)增长率未1.6%,消费物价指数(CPI)不包括食品和能源增长率为1.1%。珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)曾表示:她预计截至今年年底,通胀会回归到2%,与美联储的目标一致。

经济合作与发展组织(OECD)2016经济展望阐述,世界经济就像是陷入了“低增长的泥潭”,其将美国2016年增长预期从2%下调至1.8%,保持其2017年预期为2.2%。我们也期望无力的增长、任何美国加息的轨道和步伐保持稳健,而且根据客观的历史标准,中性的联邦基金利率将会下降。芝加哥联储主席埃文斯(Charles Evans)在最近一次讲话中表明美国的长期发展潜在增长预期已经放缓:“在2012年1月附近,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)参与者评估经济长期发展潜在增长率约为2-1/2%。如今,中立美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)参与者相信长期发展实际GDP增长仅为2%。”和我们一样,他陈述了“人口老龄化、降低的生产力、增加的存款习惯、对相对安全资产增长的需求和下降的实际均衡利率是全球现象......可能持续到未来,进而导致整个世界经济较低的潜在增长和收率曲线长短期内较低的实际利率”的趋势。


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