每日更新 - 非农就业人口 The Daily Update - Non-farm payrolls

今天显示的5月非农就业人口数据新增3.8万,远低于预期的16万,与4月份相比,低于其新增数12.3万。两月的就业人口净修正为-5.9万。当前,3月内提供的平均就业机会仅为11.6万。失业率降至4.7%,而参与率缓慢滑落至62.6%。小时平均收入增长率,与2.5%的预期增长率相比,未发生变化,仍为2.5%;且平均工作时间较上月的34.5缓慢滑落至34.4。

5月伊始,美联储基准利率期货曾暗示美联储加息的可能性进为4%,但在今天的数据发布之前,美联储官员的评述使市场对这一观点进行重新评定,美联储基准利率期货市场预计6月加息概率22%、7月加息概率54.8%。按照今天的数据,市场预期(截止到本文撰写之时)已变为6月的可能性6%、7月34.2%。

就业机会曾经是美国经济最强的数据之一,但进行的数据也表现出了疲弱的迹象。然而,本月的数据也承载着Verizon罢工的畸变,劳工部估计此次罢工可令3.51万人失业。珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)近期讲话表示在“未来数月”“很可能”适合加息,这使得美联储在继续观察经济如何表现上具有灵活性,也表明近期的疲软就业数据无法形成趋势。即便如此,近期消费数据更倾向于稍显强劲,通胀数据尽管持续温和,却逐渐走高:4月核心物价指数(PCE)增长率未1.6%,消费物价指数(CPI)不包括食品和能源增长率为1.1%。珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)曾表示:她预计截至今年年底,通胀会回归到2%,与美联储的目标一致。

经济合作与发展组织(OECD)2016经济展望阐述,世界经济就像是陷入了“低增长的泥潭”,其将美国2016年增长预期从2%下调至1.8%,保持其2017年预期为2.2%。我们也期望无力的增长、任何美国加息的轨道和步伐保持稳健,而且根据客观的历史标准,中性的联邦基金利率将会下降。芝加哥联储主席埃文斯(Charles Evans)在最近一次讲话中表明美国的长期发展潜在增长预期已经放缓:“在2012年1月附近,美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)参与者评估经济长期发展潜在增长率约为2-1/2%。如今,中立美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)参与者相信长期发展实际GDP增长仅为2%。”和我们一样,他陈述了“人口老龄化、降低的生产力、增加的存款习惯、对相对安全资产增长的需求和下降的实际均衡利率是全球现象......可能持续到未来,进而导致整个世界经济较低的潜在增长和收率曲线长短期内较低的实际利率”的趋势。

如果美国数据在夏季支持另一次加息,我们希望美联储将持续“领先曲线”,而且收率曲线将在重量基位持续期的远端有利位置走平。更重要的是,超过美元10年期的政府债券交易收益为负,高品质欧元债券收益为负,特别是那些债权国,持续寻求吸引人的投资。

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