每日更新 - 美联储 The Daily Update - The Fed

昨天美联储主席珍妮特.耶伦就货币政策前景、她对当前美国经济的看法、以及美联储在未来一段时间感知到的风险等发表了讲话。这次讲话备受市场参与人士的期待,因为这是自上周五令人沮丧的非农就业数据以来的第一次新评论。

欧洲、中国、石油价格、美国的生产力和收入等国内要素均被提及。“朝我们的目标前行的不确定因素是相当大的,适当的货币政策立场将暗暗取决于这些不确定因素的发展”。

大概十天前,耶伦曾在哈佛表示,利率上调在未来的几个月都是适宜的。昨天关于进一步利率上调时机的参考信息已经被删除了。今天早上市场得出的结果是6月15日将有2%的可能性增长,七月将会上调22%,九月将上调42%。“联邦基金利率的进一步渐增可能是适当的”,她说,“但是,我着重指出,货币政策并非在一个预设的路线上,它的前景存在重大的转变,因为经济有必要在适当的政策路径上做相应的转变”。

耶伦的两个同事也出现在新闻中,亚特兰大联储主席洛克哈特,一个中庸派的家伙,说他没有耐心亲自花费心血在七月的会议上。他说“我想我们可以保持谨慎,先看看事情如何发展”。而波士顿联储主席罗森格伦,鸽派人士,说最近的就业报告很让人失望,“弄明白报告中的减弱是种异常现象还是劳动力市场普遍放缓的反映将变得非常重要”。

我们觉得美联储仍走在在进一步收紧的道路上。到年底,我们将看到一个或可能两个变动。然而,和以往的经验相比,结合人口统计资料和抑制经济活动的世界大部分负债性质,我们相信未来是一个低利率的世界。

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