每日更新 - 美联储 The Daily Update - The Fed

美联储公开市场委员会于14日和15日举行,15日的公告表示市场定价加息的几率非常低。伴随着英国欧盟公民投票即将举行,市场将又一次呈现进一步紧缩的前景。事实上,交易者们现在看到今年的加息几率不到50%。

两个问题需要考虑,第一个是美联储资产负债表上持有的美国国债2.5万亿美元意味着什么。对于12月份美联储走出几近零利率的市场来说,前几年通过量化宽松政策购买的大规模政府债务开始清算之后紧随而来的紧缩将会是一个重大问题。然而,紧缩的缓慢步调、以及关于再投资现行政策发生变化之前利率正常化必须正在进行的官员评论,都像是在安抚市场。一般而言,只要当前的政策能维持足够长的时间,美联储在今年到期之后将再投资2160亿美元于市场,明年投资1940亿美元,2018年投资3890亿美元。而彭博社采集的夜间交换数据显示,当前的有效基金利率为0.37%,至少再过三年也达不到1%,如此看来,美联储的再投资政策只能维持一段短暂的时间。“终止再投资偏离了关注区,甚至没有被放到关注区”是市场参与者们的总结。

市场质疑的第二点是,5月发布的失业率达到了4.7%,已经是美联储的年终目标了,那么“失业率可以达到多低的水平”,早在半年前,许多人就希望美联储能够在明天晚上发布的联邦公开市场委员会经济预测总结中将估计的失业率修改得更低一点。这种降低似乎是由于美国人放弃工作或寻找工作的参与率的进一步下降造成的。因此,如果美联储把年终失业率定为4.7%,假设中央银行相信这个指标会在即将到来的失业者重新找工作的阶段中迅速恢复,因此会减缓失业率的下降。考虑到工资水平的上升以及工作数量与失业率的比例相当高,一些人认为,是技术差距是让人们失业,而不是经济疲软。从广义上看,5月份的水平可以预示美联储的充分就业,随着就业问题成为利率政策的关键决定因素之一,这一指标的浮动将会在美联储的预测中被仔细研究。

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