每日更新 - 银行与英国退欧 The Daily Update - Banks and Brexit

在过去一周资产市场一直坐过山车:英国退欧成功引发了股票和货币市场的抛售及一些最明显的举动,尤其是英镑和银行业。在此情况下,英国银行损失了在低点的股价价值的三分之一,以及高风险的投资工具如CoCos也受到强烈的冲击。即使市有场反弹,劳埃德银行、巴克莱银行和苏格兰皇家银行的股票价格仍比英国退欧前至少下降25%,其中劳埃德银行表现更好些。在宣布英国退欧结果后,美林英镑金融债券指数延扩大了31个基点(目前扩大约38个基点)。


英国退欧预计对经济增长和投资是有负面影响的。例如,惠誉评级将英国的信用等级从AA+下调为AA(负面展望),本周早些时候已经将英国2016年的GDP增长预期下调至1.6%(之前为1.9%)和2017年及2018年的2%也下调0.9% 。英国央行行长马克·卡尼也提醒称,今年夏天可能会推出货币宽松政策。


对于英国的商业银行,这意味着贷款增速将放缓,净息差将会有压力,即使没有假定的经济衰退也可能导致贷款损失增加。此情况对利润和净资产收益率和压力红利有负面影响。对于希望在欧洲经营的银行,英国退欧的风险可能会让它们失去从英国提供在欧洲服务的经营权。弗朗索瓦·奥朗德声明“各城市仍可以用欧元结算由于英国在欧盟的存在已经不能如此操作了”, 但这种担心并没有被消除。虽然有些实践中不一定会发生的争议,它要提醒的是英国将要为正如现在所享有的“关联状态”下的同样的自由而奋斗,尤其是,如果不准备签订欧盟的以某种形式的人的运动自由的核心原则。唐纳德·图斯克表示“不会有点菜式的单一市场。”


继英国的主权评级降级,评级机构现在正把注意力转移到银行:穆迪纷纷下调英国银行业的前景,消极的缘由为关键信用基本面的经济疲软增长的负面影响。但变化多是前景的改变而不是整体整体评级的变化。银行处于比全球金融危机前更有利的位置,惠誉指出:“银行有13.8%的总一级资本比率,比英国银行认定的的11%左右稳定状态的资本要求更高。”


欧洲银行也受到了英国退欧结果的冲击。意大利银行被认为是最脆弱的,意大利政府已加强了其与欧盟的谈判力度,以增强一些实力较弱的竞争者的资本水平。报道称,政府正在考虑的注资高达400亿欧元的措施,并尝试使用英国退欧作为“特殊情况”和“系统性风险”为理由不遵循欧盟规定以提供国家援助,这将首先会对股东和债权人造成损失。


从安吉拉·默克尔的评论中似乎排除了这一项倡议,允许150亿欧元投在在流动性支持担保且已获批准。现在谈论的总额比以前宣布方案的更大;正如我们几个星期前写的亚特兰特基金估计总额在50亿欧元左右,并旨在帮助小型贷款机构筹集资金,且能减少不良贷款。意大利在今年年初也与欧盟达成了协议,即意大利银行将可证券化的不良贷款转到特殊目的的实体,但这一举措将充其量只能看到一部分证券坏账。据估计,意大利的不良贷款(NPLs)为3600亿欧元或占贷款总额的18%和国内生产总值的22%,虽然严重拖欠的不良贷款更接近2000亿欧元。供应估计净投放的数字接近850亿欧元。基本上,还有很多'清理'的需要做。


英国退欧对经济增长是有负影响的,并在来的时候,全球经济增长也处于挣扎中,令人吃惊的是全球主权债务交易负收益率的价值已经上升到超过11.7万亿美元:我们债券的债权国具有正收益率仍是一个有吸引力的投资。

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