每日更新 - 巨无霸指数 The Daily Update - Big Mac Index

现在......你是否知道,如果美国今年所有年收入(根据国际货币基金组织为18.5万亿美元)都用于购买巨无霸汉堡,那么这将等同于近3.7万亿个单价5美元的汉堡吗?我们知道美国人喜欢快餐,但是,即使3700000万亿个巨无霸汉堡包也不会让他们成为国家全部收入购买巨无霸最多的全球领导者。中国才是全球领导者。尽管中国的国内生产总值大约是11.3万亿美元(约73万亿元),在中国,麦当劳商标汉堡平均仅需19元(在报道本新闻时2.78美元),这相当于3.9万亿多个汉堡。随着今天晚上的联邦公开市场委员会会议召开,这一切都有意义,但是你看,至少在一个方面,中国已超越美国成为世界最大的经济体。(仅就巨无霸而言!!)

巨无霸指数通过计算汉堡的价格(包括整个汉堡,面包和馅!)来估算货币的竞争力。经济学人在1986年发明了这一指数,可以轻松判断一国货币是否贬值或者高估。其背后的基本理论基于购买力平价(PPP),其认为从长远来看,所有的汇率应该就不同国家相同的商品或服务而言趋向等同。你或许会问为什么麦当劳的巨无霸商标汉堡在全球范围内保持相同配方,因为你到世界各地的麦当劳,点一个巨无霸,然后就知道里面是什么呢!唯一例外的是印度,在那里鸡肉取代了牛肉,原因显而易见。因此,一个巨无霸在中国售价2.78美元(在撰写本文时),而在美国售价超过5美元(在撰写本文时),这表明中国货币贬值45%。

至少,这是大多数人对PPP的了解。事实上,巨无霸应该在贫穷国家更便宜,在较富裕国家更贵。这种误解就是为什么货币预测发生错误。人民币是贬值了,但不至于45%。然而,在可预见的未来,中国的经济增长可能会比世界上大多数国家更强劲,根据PPP的低估将减少。更简单的表述是人民币会在多年内保持增值。

虽然该指数不严肃地设置为货币值指南,它已经成为一个全球性的标准用于经济研究和学术论文。但是,我们现在有野村证券IPhone指数,其表明美元贬值。根据该指数,一部典型的IPhone在该国售价$ 649,在英国$ 705,在巴西$ 1,213,因此就IPhone而言,美国货币廉价。

但仅使用巨无霸或iPhone指数分析货币可能会导致错误的结论。事实上,巨无霸应该在贫穷国家更便宜,在较富裕国家更贵。这种误解就是为什么货币预测发生错误。人民币是贬值了,但不至于45%。然而,在可预见的未来,中国的经济增长可能会比世界上大多数国家更强劲,根据PPP的低估将减少。更简单的表述是人民币会在多年内保持增值,而美国,以其高额且不断增长的对外净负债,可能会衰落。这不是随意看看巨无霸指数就能得出的结论。

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