每日更新 - 央行 The Daily Update - Central banks

联邦公开市场委员会昨天宣布保持利率现状,而这一次遇到了不同政见者。经济评价的唯一显著好转是,“经济前景短期风险已经减少。”这一评论暗示,美联储正准备恢复政策正常化过程,但没有迹象表明九月的下一次会议将实施该政策。消息公布后,由于造市者青睐长远曲线,美国国债曲线牛市变平,而如今美元兑主要货币仍保持低位。

今年只召开了三次会议(9月,11月和12月),随着11月份美国总统大选,我们预计美联储将要等到明年开始逐步紧缩利率周期。2017年3月前,期货市场定价不会上升,而一些造市者预期下一次增长将为明年六月。

日本央行结束两天的政策会议后,明天我们将收到会议消息。本周早些时候,日本首相安倍晋三出人预料地宣布〜2650亿美元(占国内生产总值5%)的财政刺激计划后,央行无疑面临压力。目前还不清楚这一计划的细节,但是我们希望下周内阁会面后,细节更清晰。

央行预计将在本月对融通性货币政策作出反应,但是日本央行最近举措没有达到市场预期,而这又迫使日元升值; 妨碍出口从而影响经济增长。根据彭博资讯,市场利率将削减5个基点至-0.15%。由于该国控制通胀回落,我们预计银行将需要扩大资产购买。日本央行行长黑田东彦驳回了“直升机货币”的理念,声称“没有必要,也没有可能”实施这一计划。

随着市场迅速对央行失去信心,我们对长远曲线仍看好绩效。因此,我们仍满意于多样化投资组合的高信用评级,这会继续提供充足的价差缓冲和有吸引力的收益率。

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