每日更新 - 中国 The Daily Update - China

第18届中欧峰会上周在北京闭幕,这是自英国退欧正式宣布后,中国与欧盟召开的第一次会议。因此,这次会议相当关键,欧洲理事会主席唐纳德·图斯克,欧盟委员会主席让-克洛德·容克和欧盟外交事务和安全政策高级代表费代丽卡·莫盖里尼纷纷出席。中国领导人无疑渴望听到英国退欧对欧洲经济增长的影响,以及这种影响对中国经济的后续效应。在公投前,中国领导人实际上已建议英国选民留在欧盟,说明其作为联盟成员的重要性。但中国一向不参与西方政治。

尽管前首相戴维·卡梅伦推动与中国共创“黄金时代”的举措辉煌一时,,北京似乎认为与欧盟(中国最大的贸易合作伙伴)合作具有更大的战略价值,因为中国每天有约10亿欧元商品出口到欧洲。中欧合作不仅限于贸易领域,据报道,中国大大小小的国有企业和民营企业在欧投资额已达约230亿美元。峰会前,总理李克强表示,英国决定从欧盟撤出增加了全球经济的不确定性,并补充说,他希望看到一个“团结稳定”的欧盟。

本次峰会闭幕时,图斯克评论说“双方就相互关系的各个层面进行了非常详细、非常坦率的讨论。但最重要的是,我们的会谈......富有成果和结论性。”他补充说,双方都积极推进两国战略伙伴关系的深化。本次峰会于20国集团贸易部长会晤后召开,会晤期间,领导人同意确定新的协调性全球投资政策,从而在全球呈现“非常缓慢的复苏和增长”的情况下削减交易成本,提高融资效果。

再看中国,良好经济数据缓和了人们对经济放缓的担忧;六月工业生产和零销售额超出了市场预期。在2016年第二季度,经济总量扩大至年同比6.7%,超出市场共识,与政府的6.5-7%的目标一致。今天上午,我们听说,评级机构标准普尔将中国2016年和2017年的预期经济增长率各提升了0.25%,分别为6.6%和6.3%;并举例“中国第二季度超过预期的国内生产总值增长数据”。我们认为,全球经济的不确定性和国内不利因素将继续影响中国经济,但是,政府有足够的财政能力来支撑经济;其财政赤字仅为国内生产总值的3%。

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