每日更新 - 中国和土耳其新兴外汇市场储备 The Daily Update - Emerging market foreign exchange reserves in China and Turkey

早在四月,我们报道了外界对中国减持外汇储备的膨胀担忧。从那时起,中国的外汇储备似乎已经稳定,处于3.2万亿美元的水平。正如我们指出的,这样的储备规模足以反击对外界因为中国债权人地位、相对较低的负债美元化水平、多元化的出口经济和M2货币供应量和流动性而对人民币发表的抨击论调。出于这些考量,国际货币基金组织用来估算新兴国家外汇储备充分性的方式未免过分简单,在应用于中国时应大大调低。相信这样的调整,再加上中国外储过去个月表现出的稳定趋势,能够给外界一剂强心剂:中国官员有充分的财政和政策资源实现既定目标,使人民币在3个月或更短时间内成为国际货币基金组织官方的全球性储备货币。

反观土耳其,这个正遭受政治和社会动荡之苦的国家则呈现完全不同的光景。长期以来,土耳其一直是新兴经济体中最脆弱的一个环节,经常账户赤字较大而短期对外负债水平过高。然而在过去的几次危机中,土耳其已成功设法偿还了这些债务。即便如此,投资者也不应想当然地认为市场将长期保持宽松状态。公共债务数字约占国内生产总值30%左右,观感并不特别令人担忧。但是,从更广泛的国外净资产(NFA)角度来看,这有助于突出不同系统性问题导致的国内风险。从这个角度看,土耳其的净外债已接近国内生产总值100%。历史上许多国家在这一临界水平出现之后,都出现了债务违约的状况。一旦市场稍有风吹草动,还息将迅速难以为继。

对土耳其而言,其严重的外汇风险的根源,归根结底在于其银行(和企业)从国外大举借贷,继而在国内大量放贷。了解土耳其内部财务运作和储备的一个重要方面在于,土耳其央行以黄金和美元储备来满足银行的资本金要求。这一方面有助于平衡银行的借贷(以及一些资产负债表限制),但同时也意味着土耳其政府(已薄弱的)约1000亿美元的外汇储备已经与银行贷款差不多。一旦外汇储备出现流动性危机或流失,银行就会支取这些美元储备——各大银行帮助稳定货币正是央行所期望的希望。这种机制的风险使得货币更容易在这样的情况下急剧贬值-而国内骚乱很可能会加剧市场的担忧情绪,从而更有可能出现这样的情况。我们目前没有在土耳其投资或购买里拉股份,而是选择在提供相对高回报的净外国债权人国家投资。

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