每日更新 - 欧洲政治风险蔓延 The Daily Update - EU political risk contagion

因此,随着英国退出欧盟的公民投票结果出炉后,紧随而来的政治不稳定性大幅提高,欧洲其他国家所要面对的是什么?从我们的价值投资角度来看,相对于一些国家高水平的净外债以及持续阻碍经济增长的政治僵局来说,大部分欧洲信贷已经几乎不能提供多少价值了。目前,随着来自对抗性谈判的不确定性的增加,整个欧洲的极右(或极左)政治党派对于支持其他欧洲国家或欧盟国家举行公民投票的可能性信心暴涨。这进一步降低了他们对于长期价值投资者的吸引力,然而,究竟是哪些国家面临这些最紧迫的问题呢?

最陷于政治混乱风险中的主要国家似乎是荷兰和奥地利。荷兰(恰好收到“荷兰退出欧盟”标签的国家)与英国有着最密切的经济联系,并将怀念英国,作为他们最一致的欧盟盟友之一,英国曾帮助过这个低地国家推动气候变化方面的更为精确的改革,以及其他切中要害的重要裁决。然而,民意调查显示,仍然有稍占多数的人反对英国退出欧盟,同时也反对公民投票本身。但是这种效益微弱的民意调查并不足以让英国选择留在欧盟。备受欢迎的极右派“自由党”领导人基尔特·威尔德斯已经做出承诺,在明年三月份荷兰大选之前,他将举行一个类似的公民投票作为他的竞选策略。届时,他们可能会从英国在严峻的考验中所努力得到的痛苦或者利益中获取事后的利益。奥地利也面临着如下问题:被剥夺公民权的群体最近在欧盟选举中几乎都选举该国极右派的领导诺伯特·霍费尔;绿党领导人亚力山大·梵·德·贝伦以仅有的31000票数在选举中险胜,凭借50.3%的选票击败了49.7%的选票。霍费尔还夸大其词地说,他们可能会要求欧盟在年内举行另一次选举,不过值得庆幸的是,这目前不是他的要求。同样的民意调查显示,至少从目前来看,等待和观望的阵营稍占多数。

同样承受重大压力的还有法国,其极右派国民阵线的领导人马琳·勒庞是英国退出欧盟结果出来后,总统弗朗索瓦•奥朗德首先会见的人之一。她也承诺,如果她被当选为总统的话,将举行一次公民投票。勒庞应该可以轻松地走到总统选举的最后一轮,但是真正被选上的机会非常渺茫。尽管总统奥朗德是欧盟领导人最不喜欢的人之一(据舆观的调查显示,其支持率仅为12%),甚至有左派抗议他(非常合理的)的经济改革并支持国民阵线,但他仍然有潜能可以比预期增长得更快。

意大利和丹麦也面临着类似的压力,大多数欧盟国家,即便不是所有的,在英国退出欧盟结果出炉后,显然都面临着重大阻力。综合考虑所有这些不愉快事件以及所有这些相互矛盾的问题,人们可以明白为何欧盟在给戴维•卡梅伦闭门羹时不加以限制。

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