每日更新 - 欧洲人口统计资料 The Daily Update - Europe - Demographics

2015年欧盟统计局最初的人口估计是一次有趣的现实检查,尽管结果有些令人沮丧。据欧盟统计局数据,截至2016年1月,欧盟(包括英国在内的28个成员国)的人口估计从上年同期的5.083亿上升至5.101亿。但是,关键是欧盟区出现了有史以来的第一次人口“负自然变化”,5200万死亡人数超过5100万出生人数:净移民人口才是这次“人口增长”的背后推手。

更令人担忧的是,欧盟统计局在Europop2013预测,2014至2080年之间人口增长仅为2.4%,而抚养比率会大幅攀升(年龄在65岁或以上的经济不活跃人口与15-64岁工作人口之比)。欧盟28国老年抚养比率预计会从2014年28.1%提升至2080年51%;换句话说,工作年龄与高龄者的比例将从4:1下降为2:1,这一下降幅度是相当大的。

尽管爱尔兰似乎比南欧境况更好,在欧洲也有紧缩驱动的“空心化”现象。爱尔兰14岁以下的年轻人所占比例最高,占总人口的22.1%,出生人口多于死亡人口,人口自然变化情况最健康。然而,爱尔兰毛出生率也在不断下降。在诸如希腊、葡萄牙、西班牙和意大利等南欧国家,这一趋势更令人堪忧:人口自然增长率为负值。2014年,意大利人口只增长仅由正净移民带动,而最初的总人口估计表明,意大利2015年人口也下降了。2014年,希腊和葡萄牙的人口经历了负净移民与负自然增长的“双重打击”。2014年,西班牙的人口数据显示净负移民和正自然增长,但后者在2015年转移到负值。净负移民尤其具有损害性,因为移民往往是年轻的工作适龄人口,他们移民是为了寻找更好的工作机会。对于正深受紧缩政策和高失业率之苦国家,这种损害性更大。

不可避免的是,这些“老龄化”和“空心化”趋势会对经济增长造成负面影响,并对社会系统带来更大的预算负担。国际货币基金组织估计,2035年前,欧元区未来老龄化可能会每年削弱约0.2%全要素生产率(TFP)增长;这一比例是很大的,因为每年平均TFP增长率估计只有0.8%。预计希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利、斯洛文尼亚、斯洛伐克和爱尔兰受影响最为严重,加上高债务水平,经济增长会显著受阻。

德拉吉承认“欧元区的不利人口统计数据”属实,并指出“公共政策的确可以通过接收和整合移民,缓和这些影响。但由于政策无法改变长期人口趋势,言外之意就是要实现长期人口增长仍需要额外措施-即提高生产力”。但提高生产力是一个复杂的问题,随着英国退欧可能已经变得更具挑战性;因而欧盟政策需要寻求加强单一市场,推动可扩展性,创建高效劳动力和产品市场,同时提供有效的金融和法律体系支持。

毫无疑问,欧洲面临着巨大的人口方面挑战,但它不是唯一的。根据联合国统计,2015年至2050年全球48个国家和地区的人口总数(不仅仅是工作适龄人口)预计将持续减少。由于这一人口发展趋势已经板上钉钉,未来应该只有弱增长,这意味着利率和通货膨胀很可能几十年维持低水平。这样一来,投资效益超过4%的长期投资债券将非常有利可图。

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